Despite nearly three years of sweeping economic reforms by the Federal Government, about 79 per cent of Nigerians remain poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty, highlighting the country’s deepening social and econommic challenges, as new World Bank documents have shown.

The findings are contained in the World Bank’s newly approved Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria, covering 2026 to 2032, and its accompanying Streamlined Country Diagnostic. The seven-year strategy seeks to support Nigeria’s ambition to create more and better jobs through private-sector-led growth while accelerating poverty reduction.

According to the Streamlined Country Diagnostic document, “Thirty-three per cent of its population is ultra-poor (food insecure by age-weighted caloric intake), 61 per cent is below the poverty line, and 79 per cent is near poor (below the poverty line or vulnerable to falling back into poverty).”

The documents indicate that while recent macroeconomic reforms have helped stabilise the economy and restore investor confidence, the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in living standards for most Nigerians.

The World Bank noted that Nigeria’s economic performance over the past decade had been constrained by structural rigidities, policy missteps, dependence on crude oil, and repeated external shocks, leaving millions trapped in poverty.

It stated that about 139 million Nigerians currently live below the national poverty line, with poverty concentrated largely in the northern part of the country. The report also noted that more than 86 million Nigerians remain without electricity, while three to four million young people enter the labour market every year with limited employment opportunities.

The Bank said, “Despite recent bold reforms stabilising the economy and laying the groundwork for the Renewed Hope Agenda, significant structural challenges remain.”

It added that sustaining macro-fiscal and structural reforms would be critical to reducing inflation, expanding fiscal space and ensuring that recent economic stabilisation translates into improved living standards.

The reports reviewed reforms introduced by the Bola Tinubu administration, including the removal of petrol subsidy, exchange rate liberalisation, tighter monetary policy and tax reforms.

According to the Bank, the reforms have begun to improve macroeconomic indicators. Economic growth increased from 3.5 per cent in the first half of 2024 to 3.9 per cent during the corresponding period of 2025, foreign reserves exceeded $42bn, fiscal deficits narrowed, and investor confidence strengthened.

However, it warned that high inflation continues to undermine household incomes. The report stated, “High inflation, though declining, continues to erode real incomes, particularly for the poor. Social protection efforts to support the most vulnerable have been slow and uneven in their rollout.”

The Bank added that although the reforms helped Nigeria avoid a more severe economic crisis, institutional weaknesses, weak policy coordination, and inadequate budget transparency continue to pose significant risks. It warned that sustained reform implementation, backed by deeper structural measures, would be required to improve Nigeria’s medium-term economic outlook.

Under the new Country Partnership Framework, the World Bank said job creation would serve as the primary pathway for reducing poverty. The report explained that international experience from countries such as India, Indonesia, and China shows that moving people into productive employment remains the most effective tool for reducing poverty.

The World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, said the institution would focus on helping Nigeria convert recent macroeconomic gains into improved living standards.

“Our new Country Partnership Framework provides the strategy for how the World Bank Group will support Nigeria over the coming years, with a strong focus on helping to create more and better jobs, particularly by enabling private sector-led growth.

“The recent macroeconomic gains have been critical to help stabilise the economy. Translating improved macroeconomic conditions into better living standards will require addressing the structural constraints to spur private sector investment and job creation,” he said.

The Bank concluded that preserving the current reform momentum while accelerating private investment, strengthening governance, and creating productive jobs would determine whether Nigeria succeeds in lifting millions of people out of poverty.