The European Union (EU) has ruled out sending a full election observation mission to Nigeria for the 2027 general elections, blaming the worsening security situation and what it called the hostile treatment of its observers and officials after the 2023 polls.

The decision brings to an end more than two decades of full-scale EU election observation missions in Nigeria.

The EU communicated the decision in response to a letter from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which had invited the bloc to monitor the 2027 elections.

In its response, the EU gave two reasons for declining the invitation: the deteriorating security situation in the country and the hostile treatment its observers and officials faced after the release of its final report on the 2023 election.

Instead of the large deployment used during previous elections, the EU said it would place only a small team of officials in Abuja to follow developments and send reports to Brussels. People familiar with the correspondence said the number would be about three.

The arrangement would exclude the deployment of long-term observers across the states, short-term observers on election day and a chief observer, as was done during previous elections in Nigeria.

INEC had invited the EU to observe the 2027 elections. The commission has sent similar invitations to the bloc before every general election since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999.

The EU monitored Nigeria’s elections in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023. Barry Andrews, an Irish member of the European Parliament and chief observer for the 2023 election, described that deployment as the seventh EU mission to Nigeria since 1999.

For the 2023 election, an 11-member core team of experts arrived in Abuja on January 11, about six weeks before the presidential election. The mission later deployed 40 long-term observers across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Short-term observers were added shortly before election day, increasing the number of accredited observers to 110. They came from 25 EU member states, alongside Norway, Switzerland and Canada.

A European Parliament delegation also participated in the mission during the presidential and National Assembly elections. The delegation stayed in Nigeria until April 11, several weeks after the February 25 presidential and March 18 governorship elections. The mission released its final report in Abuja in June 2023.

The report generated controversy, with 25 recommendations covering six priority areas. It pointed to what it described as persistent systemic weaknesses and stated that gaps in electoral law and administration had affected the delivery of well-run and inclusive elections while undermining public confidence in INEC.

The report led to protests at the EU delegation’s office in Abuja. The organisers accused the bloc of meddling in Nigeria’s internal affairs and called for the report to be withdrawn.

Opposition politicians and civil society organisations alleged that supporters of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) were behind the protests. The allegation was denied.

The EU’s decision follows continued violence in parts of the North West and North East, the Middle Belt and the South East, where sit-at-home enforcement and attacks on electoral facilities affected the 2023 elections in several states.

Election observation missions require personnel to visit polling units in rural and remote locations, often without extensive security support. This makes large-scale deployments increasingly challenging.

The decision is likely to affect the level of international scrutiny surrounding the 2027 elections, considering the size and length of previous EU missions.

The National Democratic Institute, International Republican Institute, Commonwealth and African Union have also monitored previous Nigerian elections. However, stakeholders say none has matched the EU in terms of the scale and length of its presence.

In 2022, the EU committed €39 million under the second phase of its Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria programme, which covers the 2022-2027 electoral cycle.

Another €13 million was committed specifically to provide technical support to INEC ahead of the 2023 elections. The EU’s correspondence does not indicate whether the decision on election observation will affect those funding arrangements.

The development could also influence perceptions about the credibility of the 2027 elections amid concerns about falling public confidence and voter participation.

Turnout for the 2023 presidential election stood at about 27 per cent, the lowest level recorded since Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999.

Stakeholders have maintained that credible international observers provide another layer of oversight at polling units and can contribute to greater confidence in the electoral process.

INEC has scheduled the 2027 general election for February and is already carrying out preparations, including continuous voter registration and a review of polling unit distribution.

Oketola Oriye, chief press secretary to the INEC chairman, declined to comment when contacted by Daily Sun. In a telephone interview, he said information available to him was at variance with the claims.

Kemiebi Ebiemfa, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also declined to comment.

Messages sent to her active phone line were delivered but unanswered.