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COALITION MOVEMENT: HOW FAR CAN ADC GO?
After Wednesday’s unveiling of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), as the platform of choice for the group of persons who formed a coalition with the main aim of ousting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu from office in 2027, all eyes are on the coalition to see what step it would take next.
The burning issues include how the coalition, due to the varied political backgrounds of its members and clash of ambition of its leaders would coalesce and fundamentally, how they would integrate with the old structure of the party.
The ADC was registered as a political party in 2005 and has been participating in elections since. The party shocked many when it came fourth in the 2019 elections poling 97, 874 votes when it fielded former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Obadiah Mailafia.
The coming of the coalition members into the party is already causing problems within its fold with the older members saying that the party has been hijacked from them while some members of the collation are also not comfortable with the manner the leaders are trying to fit into a pre-existing entity instead of forming a new party.
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Analysts believe that despite the imperfections of the coalition leading to the adoption of the ADC as platform, that it is coming as a relief and huge break for democracy to thrive as the country was hitherto tilting towards a one party state.
This is because the coalition has given many Nigerians who felt that the other parties have been strangled with the poaching by the ruling party, an opportunity to express themselves in a democracy.
Presidential candidate of the party in the 2023 elections, Dumebi Kachikwu, in an interview said if the coalition leaders truly wish to be part of the ADC, they should follow due process.
“If they want to join us, they should do the proper thing and come through the front door. We are a party of decent and well-behaved people. Our brand of opposition is one that not only opposes but proposes— something your group is not conversant with.”
Within the coalition, one of the conveners, Dr Umar Ardo, also expressed reservations about the process of adopting a new party.
He said, “I painstakingly tried to understand the logic and legality of what transpired in the handing and taking over procedure of the party, and I see none whatsoever.
“I don’t know the constitution of the of ADC (I doubt if it’s different though), but in the constitutions of the PDP, SDP and the proposed ADA that I have been a member, if the chairman or any member of the executive of the party resigns, the deputy takes over until such a time when due elections are held to elect a replacement.
“And if the entire executives of the party resign at the national level or more than 2/3 of states’ executives resign, as it seems to be the case in the current coalition/ADC arrangements, then the party is constitutionally qualified for deregistration. There is no stopgap in this legal framework.”
The unveiling
At the unveiling which took place in Abuja, many were surprised to see faces hitherto not known to belong to the coalition. They include people like former ministers of foreign affairs, Alhaji Aminu Wali and Chief Tom Ikimi, former sports minister, Bolaji Abdullahi, former aviation minister, Hadi Sirika, former minister of police affairs, Adamu Maina Waziri and others.
The known faces all along had been former vice president, Atiku Abubakar; former governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi; Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi; former governor, Rauf Aregbesola; former Senate President, David Mark; and former governors Liyel Imoke, Nasir El-rufai and many others.
Political watchers say beyond revealing the faces behind the coalition, the unveiling also confirmed the level of seriousness of the proponents of the coalition in their bid to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
After scaling the hurdle of securing a platform which took the coalition almost two years according to a source, the next big challenge is how to deal with the array of presidential aspirants who are in the bloc for the presidential ticket. Atiku, Obi, Amaechi, Tambuwal are interested in flying the flag of the party.
2014
Analysts recall that in the build-up to the formation of the APC in 2014, many of the aspirants were willing to make sacrifices by subduing their ambitions in case they failed to get the party’s nomination.
Former governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi, in an interview with the Weekend Trust explained that the governors took a stand then because they felt Buhari had the momentum.
“We had to convince others not to run— Bukola Saraki, Tambuwal. But Kwankwaso and Atiku said they would run and we didn’t stop them and left it for the people to choose. So, it wasn’t as if we all said it must be Buhari; just that the governors had clearly indicated where they are going,” he stated.
At the end, they all agreed to submit to a process of primary elections with the agreement that whoever wins will receive the backing of others while discontent should be confined internally and within the perimeters of the party structure.
To the surprise of many, it worked. After Muhammadu Buhari defeated Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso; Atiku; and others to clinch the ticket, there was no open display of ill feeling as the other aspirants accepted their fate with equanimity and agreed to work together to deliver their presidential candidate which they did eventually.
To observers, the situation appears different now as the sentiments accompanying the political calculation are different.
In 2015, the overwhelming sentiment was for the presidential slot to go to the North as part of what informed the opposition against Jonathan in the first place, was his alleged refusal to allow the North complete the period lost due to President Umaru Yar’Adua’s death. All the APC presidential aspirants then were from the northern part of the country.
But in the current circumstances, the issue of zoning has become problematic. While it is generally believed that since it is coming shortly after Buhari had served as president for eight straight years, it should be the turn of the South, the counter poise is that bringing a southern candidate to run against Tinubu will not give it the required traction in the north, with its acclaimed large number of voters.
The calculation is that with a northern candidate, people from the region would easily be mobilised to vote for ADC, while efforts would be made to woo parts of the South.
On the other hand, party stakeholders believe that once the candidate is not from the South, voters from that part of the country would not buy into the idea and that would cost them southern votes.
Former presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, however believes strongly that he should be the candidate based on the point that it is the turn of the South.
To allay the fears of northerners who might be discouraged to support him due to fears of having another southern candidate doing eight years, Obi has offered to serve for only one term of four years.
Other challenges
The major challenge, according to insiders is how to convince Atiku, who is said to be viewing the current bid as a golden opportunity for him to be president, to step down. There are others like Amaechi and Tambuwal too who are interested in running for the presidential ticket of the party, hoping that the calculations would favour a dark horse.
One of the leaders of the coalition, Adamu Maina Waziri told Weekend Trust that, that wouldn’t be a problem as the leaders had foreseen all the issues and had mechanism for resolving them.
He said most of them are experienced and had weighed the options before taking the decision.
Former governor of Jigawa State and a chieftain of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Alhaji Sule Lamido, said he joined the coalition of opposition politicians to defeat the ruling APC in 2027 elections.
He alleged that some members of the PDP National working Committee (NWC) were working for Tinubu.
“There is no way we would simply surrender our party and allow them to take over. The only way is to fight them by supporting the coalition,” said the former Foreign Affairs Minister.
Resignations
The effect of the unveiling is already telling on all the parties including the APC. Former Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami and former aviation minister, Hadi Sirika have left the fold of the party.
The worst hit so far is the PDP, which is losing key members in droves. Former Senate President David Mark has resigned from the party, while former vice president, Atiku Abubakar is expected to tender his resignation in his hometown of Jada in Adamawa State any moment from now. Those who are soon to follow include Maina Waziri and others.
The SDP has also recorded losses. The party was the first port of call when the coalition was formed and El-rufai went there apparently to prepare the party ahead of others.
But the party appears not amenable to the kind of adjustments that would accommodate the others. This led to a crisis within the party leading to the purported suspension of the national chairman of the party, Shehu Gabam.
When El-rufai joined the party, few others moved with him and it is expected that those who moved with him then would also follow him to the new platform.
Unlike what happened in 2015, when governors under the umbrella of the ruling party PDP broke away to join the coalition that formed the APC, no serving governor has openly identified with the ADC.
Leaders of the coalition, however, say they’re not worried by that as the people are with them.
Some, however, predict that the bulk of the defections would occur when it is time for primary elections and the incumbents fail to get the tickets of their parties.
“That is when you will begin to see the kind of sweeping tsunami that would sweep away governor and federal lawmaker from the ruling party and others,” one of the coalition leaders stated.
Situation in states
Jigawa
Due to the involvement of the former governor, Sule Lamido, in the coalition it is expected that the party will gain popularity in the state. It has been reported that one of the sons of the former governor may contest the 2027 gubernatorial elections on the platform of the party.
Kano
The presence of Alhaji Aminu Wali at the coalition gathering has set tongues rolling that efforts are on the way to promote the party in the state.
Adamawa
The state is expected to be one of the strongholds of the ADC, given the presence of former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, in the party. Given Atiku’s alliance with the former governorship candidate of the APC in the state, Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed Binani, the party is expected to register more than a passive presence. Already, Binani is reported to have joined the ADC.
Surprisingly, the ADC is taking root in some states. Though, no governor has defected to the ADC yet, Weekend Trust learnt that the party has taken root and is sprouting in many states.
The Adamawa State Chairman of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Shehu Yohanna, has boasted that his party will be in control of Adamawa Government House and the Presidential Villa come 2027.
In an exclusive interview with Dailytrust, he hinted that some bigwigs in the political scene have joined ADC, one of them being Atiku, a former APC Vice Presidential candidate and other people such as Aishatu Dahiru Binani, an APC governorship candidate, Abdulazeez Hammanyero Nyako, former Senator; Ishaku Abbo, former Senator.
“On Sunday night, I had one-on-one with His Excellency Atiku Abubakar and we had a discussion before he eventually decided to formally resign from his ex-coalition and I assured him to join the ADC, which he did,” Yohanna accused.
I later contacted him that His Excellency was coming to Yola this Friday, and will be visiting Kojoli, and he should be in Kojoli at that time. I will then accompany him together with some of our Ward Chairmen of the ADC, to enable him register and complete his defection process to our party.
The ADC Chairman added that his party would win the upcoming by-election in Ganye Local Government Area in a landslide.
“We, I assure you, are going to govern both at state and federal level,” Yohanna said. “We do have many of our people trooping into the ADC, and we are marching steadily towards taking over power in Nigeria in 2027.”
Benue
In Benue State for instance, prominent political figures are spreading the gospel of the ADC.
Some of those reported to have identified with the coalition apart from Senator David Mark are; Prof Terhemba Shija, a governorship aspirant in the 2023 general election who contested the primary election with incumbent Governor Hyacinth Alia on the platform of the APC.
Also, Senator Gabriel Suswam, a two-term governor of Benue State, who failed in his bid to secure second mandate as senator representing the Benue North East (zone A) senatorial district.
Senator Emmanuel Orker Jev, who hails from Buruku Local Government Area is listed among top politicians from the state backing the coalition and ready to hold forte his Benue North West (zone B) senatorial district.
Similarly, there is Herman Hembe, who had been in the House of Representatives for three terms and contested the governorship of the state as flag bearer for the Labour Party (LP) in the last general election.
Professor Tivilumun Nyitse, a former Chief of Staff to ex-Governor Samuel Ortom, is believed to be part of the coalition. Nyitse also aspired for the governorship of the state under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2019 election.
Also, Terngu Tsegba, a one-time House of Representative member and an apostle of Suswam has thrown his weight behind the coalition.
Sir John Ngbede, the PDP deputy governor candidate in the 2023 election and former Commissioner of Finance, David Olofu, as well as many others are queuing behind Senator Mark to create awareness of the coalition in the Benue South senatorial district (zone C), Weekend Trust gathered.
Plateau
Former sports minister, Solomon Dalung, has publicly indicated his interest to join the ADC. Our correspondent learnt he is working hard to move his structure to the party.
An insider said they have received notices from various persons indicating interest to join the party.
Meanwhile, Richard Bature, who was the ADC governorship candidate in the previous election, said they are in tune with what is happening in Abuja and that he is already reviving the party in the state.
He said many people have indicated interest to join the party, including political heavy weights, but that he won’t reveal their names yet, as it is the people that should make that known themselves.
“Whenever there is a coalition of such, you will expect that the party will now become bigger and better, and there are chances of winning elections at all levels. So, to me, it is a welcome development.
“Again, the known parties have failed Nigeria and people are looking up to something new that can bring development.
“We are still fine-tuning things, trying to get the structure right and we are in touch with what is going on in Abuja regarding the coalition. Our representatives were there at the meetings.
“You know, the party has an existing structure in the state led by Ambassador Hanatu Gagara, and there have been active members on ground. So, we are deliberating and meeting to ensure that everything goes right,” Bature stated.
Asked of any likelihood of the new entrants high jacking the party from those formerly on ground, he said there’s always that likelihood in such a situation, but that they are meeting and discussing so that whatever happens, the interest of everybody will be taken care of.
On whether Solomon Dalung has already registered with the party at the state, he said that was yet to be done.
Lagos
The Labour Party Lagos governorship candidate in the 2023 election, Mr. Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour has endorsed the coalition of opposition parties.
Rhodes-Vivour had insisted that the only way to defeat the ruling party is for the opposition to come together. However, he advised that individuals making up the coalition must subsume their individual ambition.
Checks by our correspondent showed that the Labour Party chieftain is yet to officially resign from the party but sources around him said at the right time he would join the newly adopted party.
The Labour Party chairperson in the state, Pastor Dayo Ekong, in a chat with our correspondent said the party is presently focused on winning the forthcoming local government election scheduled for next Saturday.
She advised the party members not to be distracted. On the coalition, she said, “At the right time it will be sorted out.”
Osun
The ADC, due to the appointment of Rauf Aregbesola as the national secretary of the party, is getting recognition in Osun State. Our correspondent sighted a video in circulation where buses and t-shirts, branded in the party’s colours, were on display in the streets. Many of Aregbesola’s followers comprising a former speaker of the state House of Assembly, former commissioners, former lawmakers who worked closely with him during his tenure as the governor are still with him under the umbrella of Omoluabi Progressive Forum. Though none of them has come out to endorse ADC, there are speculations that some of them will join him in the new party.
PDP reacts
National Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Debo Ologunagba said the party is not distracted.
He said, “Our party is currently working conscientiously towards a successful national convention which will further revamp and reposition the PDP for the task ahead.
“Nevertheless, as a major opposition party with very strong presence and bond with Nigerians across the country, the PDP restates that it remains open to working with other well-meaning like-minded citizens in the collective effort to rescue our nation from the stranglehold of the rudderless and insensitive All Progressives Congress (APC)-led administration.”
APC dismisses ADC/ coalition
For its part, the ruling APC has also dismissed the new coalition. In a statement, APC National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka said, “It was an unveiling of a coalition of hoaxers and self-obsessed merchants of vendetta.”
The statement continued: “From beginning to end, Senator Mark said nothing about the purpose of the so-called coalition other than a loud declaration of desperation for power. What value does the coalition bring to Nigerians?
“Why should any Nigerian be concerned about a coalition of egotistical maniacs for whom power and patronage are the oxygen on which their lives depend?
“One would have expected that, after months of vacillating between the devil and the deep blue sea in search of a host platform, Senator Mark and his co-travellers would take Nigerians seriously enough to tell them what their coalition would do differently from the administration’s bold economic and sectoral policy reforms.
“What key alternative policies would the coalition implement, and what prospects of success do they have compared to the high-value and transformative impact of the administration’s reforms?”
