Dons Eze
FIVE US RESEARCHERS SEE NIGERIA AS A FAILED STATE IN 2030
A Group of Five United States of America academics have authored a research work on “failed State 2030 , Nigeria -a case study” and revealed that Nigeria as independent country can failed for a number of reasons.
Col Christopher J Kinnan, Daniel B Gordon, Col Mark D Delong, Douglas W Jaquish and Col Reuben S McAllum are both Staff of Center for Strategy and Technology (CSAT), Air University Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama 36112, USA came up with the occasional paper series established by the center (CSAT)
CSAT as a forum for research on topics that reflects long term strategy thinking about technology and its implications for US National security, the authors described how a failed State may impact the United States of America and the global economy in 2030.
The authors revealed that nations-states can fall for a myriads of reasons; cultural or religious conflict, a broken social contract between the government and the governed, a catastrophic natural disaster, financial collapse, war and so forth.
According to the US senior air force officers that Nigeria with its vast oil wealth, large population and its strategy position in Africa and the global economy can fall, and if it fails disproportionately affects the United States and the global economy.
They said Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and will have nearly 250 million people by the year 2030 and its reflectively short modern history, Nigeria have survived five military coups as well as separatist and religious wars. It mired with an active armed insurgency, it is suffering from a disastrous ecology condition in its Niger Delta region, and it is fighting one of the modern world’s wars legacies of political and economy corruption.
“A nation with more than 350 ethnic groups, 250 languages, and three distinct religious affiliations- Christianity, Islam and Animist, Nigeria 135 million people (as at 2011) are anything but homogeneous of Nigeria’s 36 states, 12 are Islamic under the strong and growing influence of the Sokoto Caliphate.
While religious and ethnic violence are commonplace, the federal government have managed to strike a tenuous balance among the desperate religious and ethnic factions.” The research paper read
The researchers worried that with such demographics, Nigeria failure would be akin to be a piece of fine china dropped on a tile floor- it would be shattered into a potentially hundred of pieces.
They envisaged that Nigeria’s failure would also be caused by poor investment on the nation’s critical infrastructure and under investment in health care, education, science and technology are all leading to ” Brain drain” in which Nigeria most talented and educational citizens are leaving the country, and this will a future of Nigeria even poorer.
“Nascent attempt to address electoral and government corruption are meeting with some success and hold promise for the future.
“Meetings between the governments and insurgents, bandits/kidnappers groups, may over time help resolve some Nigeria’s most intractable and dangerous internal conflict.
“The population disappointment in its government has not appreciably shaken its faith in democracy. Elections are, will likely remain an important part of Nigerian life as they despite the odd, provide the people hope that they can make a difference as nigeria struggles to succeed.
“Nigeria becoming a failed State is not a foregone conclusion. However, should the oil rich state of Nigeria, a nation likely to provide to 25 percent of US light, sweet crude oil imports by 2030 failed, then the effects on the United States and other world economy would be too great to ignore.
“The threat that failure poses to a quarter billion Nigerian in terms of livelihood, security,and general way of life could quickly spread and cause a Humanitarian disaster of previous imagined proportion.
“Regardless of the extent of the Humanitarian crisis unfolding on the wake of failure, the hard work to repair damage could take two generations to make Nigeria viable again.
“This failed State scenario is one of four that comprised the blue horizon study in 2008. It explores the implications of what it will mean for the US Air Force to respond to a failed state in 2030. One with a Large population that has resources vital to the western world.
“The capacities necessary to detect threats that characteristics the environment rapidly deploy and protect respondents and sustain operation long enough to create condition for the indigenous people to resurrect their fallen nation are all issues that need to be explored.
“From this monograph helps the study team to understand what type of technologies the US Air Force should pursue to enable it to lead and prevail against the challenges and surprises posed by future failed State,” the authors stated
This occasion paper was coined in 2011 which projected the fall of Nigeria in 2030, our correspondent however reviewed the scenario in an effort to remind or in a way attract the attention of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the glaring realities the paper holds.The reality on ground that it is only six years away from 2030 based on the predictions of CSAT are convincing enough to call on the federal government to rise up to the issue and avert the looming danger of Nigeria becoming a failed State.
