Political calculations in many states have been altered with the recognition of the Rainbow Coalition championed by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, as a result of his inclusion in the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu/APC 2027 Presidential Campaign Council.

Prior to the launch of the campaign council in Abuja last week, All Progressives Congress (APC) governors led by Hope Uzodinma of Imo vehemently rejected the coalition plan, saying they would only work for the candidates of the APC.

The coalition, as proposed by the FCT minister, intends to work for the reelection of President Tinubu in 2027 but line up behind candidates of other parties, especially the PDP, for other elective posts.

Our correspondents report that in many states, the Wike-backed PDP is fielding strong candidates for the governorship and National Assembly elections whose visibility even threatens the chances of sitting governors and their candidates.

Analysts note that immediately after Wike was included in the presidential campaign council, it sent a strong signal across the states that the coalition is in place and has the imprimatur of the presidency, which has egged candidates of other opposition parties, especially the PDP across the states, to revive their structures with the hope that they would be supported by the centre.

The FCT minister has maintained that his support for President Tinubu’s re-election does not oblige him to support every APC governor or candidate.

Coalition resolves internal dispute in Adamawa

The Wike-led faction of the PDP in Adamawa State has continued its political activities without disruption following the resolution of its internal dispute.

Since the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released the list of governorship candidates submitted by political parties, the dispute over the PDP’s authentic candidate appears to have been resolved.

Chief Maurice Michael Vonobolki was recognised, rather than Caleb Andrew, who had claimed to be the party’s candidate on social media.

The party’s state secretary, Alhaji Shekarau Yerima, said the Wike factor would not affect the PDP, insisting that it had followed electoral guidelines and its constitution.

He described the PDP as a strong contender in the 2027 elections, citing its victories in the 2023 general and recent local government elections in the state.

It opens new frontier in Kwara

In Kwara State, the coalition has exposed divisions within the ruling APC over Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s succession plan, our correspondent reports.

At the centre of the realignment are aggrieved APC chieftains, the Otoge Progressives (TOP), members of the G15 group of governorship aspirants and politicians associated with former Senate President Bukola Saraki.

Although their interests differ, their opposition to the governor’s preferred succession arrangement could complicate the APC’s electoral plans.

The coalition gained visibility on August 26, when Senator Saliu Mustapha unveiled its state chapter in Ilorin.

Mustapha, who defected from the APC to the PDP, also declared his intention to challenge AbdulRazaq for the Kwara Central senatorial seat.

Wike recently blamed AbdulRazaq for the coalition’s growth, accusing him of ignoring the grievances of the G15. He also warned that the governor would face a major challenge.

Speaking on the coalition’s implications for the 2027 elections, PDP Publicity Secretary Olusegun Olushola Adewara said the party had no problem with President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid, as its primary goal was to unseat AbdulRazaq.

Adewara added that the PDP had no objection to APC members joining the coalition, stressing that its focus was on winning elections in the state.

Coalition still in force in Edo despite Orbih’s death

In Edo State, the Rainbow Coalition remains active despite the death of its leader, late Chief Dan Orbih, Daily Trust learnt.

Orbih spearheaded the coalition during the 2024 governorship election, in which Governor Monday Okpebholo defeated the PDP candidate, Barrister Asue Ighodalo.

The coalition is still active in the state and is working towards the re-election of President Bola Tinubu.

Speaking with Daily Trust, the PDP secretary in Edo, Hilary Otsu, said Wike’s Rainbow Coalition remained active in the state, as in other parts of the country.

Otsu said many people were involved in the coalition in Edo and argued that the arrangement would not affect the chances of PDP candidates in state elections.

“Edo State voters are very discerning. So, our message in Edo is very clear: Vote for BAT in the presidential ballot. For Senate, Reps and Assembly, vote for PDP only,” he said.

Rivers: Wike, APC’s Chinda, lawmakers meet Fubara again

Barely two weeks after their last meeting, Wike, on Sunday, again led the governorship candidate of APC in Rivers State, Kingsley Chinda, members of the State House of Assembly, local government chairmen and other key stakeholders to meet Governor Siminalayi Fubara at his residence in Port Harcourt.

The meeting between political leaders loyal to Wike and Fubara’s camp is said to have advanced talks aimed at consolidating ongoing reconciliation efforts in the state under the Rainbow Coalition.

Wike led a delegation comprising mainly members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, including its Speaker, Martin Amaewhule, and the 23 local government council chairmen, to meet Fubara and his supporters at the governor’s private residence in Port Harcourt.

Coalition exposes widening political divisions in Benue

The Rainbow Coalition’s bid to mobilise support for President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027 without backing Benue State Governor Hyacinth Alia’s second-term ambition has exposed widening political divisions over the state’s governorship succession.

The coalition’s National Secretary, Austin Agada, said at the weekend in Makurdi that the group would not support Alia unless he demonstrated commitment to the coalition and its political interests.

Agada told journalists that the coalition would work for Tinubu but would not support Alia.

His position comes amid allegations by the Benue Alliance for Good Governance and Accountability (BAGA) that a proposed political arrangement involving FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, and former Benue Governor Samuel Ortom was aimed at influencing the 2027 governorship election.

BAGA alleged that the arrangement, reportedly linked to the coalition, was designed to favour former Attorney-General of the Federation, Chief Mike Aondoakaa, as Alia’s successor.

The group rejected attempts by political leaders outside the state to determine Alia’s successor, insisting that the electorate should decide.

Agada said Alia had not engaged the coalition.

“Benue is not Rivers, and we will not allow Wike from Rivers State to choose a governor for us in Benue State,” the group said.

PDP Publicity Secretary Bright Antyo said the party’s leadership would later state its position on how Wike’s support for Tinubu might affect its candidates in the elections.

It’s thriving in Nasarawa – Ombugadu

PDP candidates in Nasarawa State, from the governorship to the State House of Assembly, secured their tickets from the faction loyal to Wike.

The party’s governorship candidate, Emmanuel David Ombugadu, said at a stakeholders’ meeting recently that the state chapter would elect its presidential candidate during the general elections in line with Wike’s directive.

Ombugadu, who contested the 2023 governorship election, is seeking to actualise his ambition in the 2027 elections under the PDP.

Other major candidates whose electoral chances could be affected by the coalition arrangement include former Director-General of the National Orientation Agency (NOA), Mike Omeri.

Omeri is contesting the Nasarawa South senatorial seat on the PDP platform against the candidate of the ruling APC, Abubakar Hassan Nalaraba.

In the 2023 general elections, both the PDP and APC lost the presidential vote in Nasarawa State to Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate at the time.

Ombugadu’s confirmation that the Nasarawa PDP would vote for a presidential candidate in line with Wike’s directive has continued to generate reactions among party stakeholders and observers ahead of the 2027 elections.

It may affect APC Senate candidates in Ondo

The emergence of candidates associated with the Rainbow Coalition is raising questions about the APC’s grip on its political structures in Ondo State.

At the centre of the development are Matthew Oyerinmade, popularly known as MATO, the PDP candidate for Ondo South Senatorial District, and Idowu Mafimisebi, a former APC chieftain contesting the Ilaje/Ese-Odo Federal Constituency seat on the PDP platform.

Both are associated with the Rainbow Coalition after failing to secure APC tickets for the 2027 elections.

Oyerinmade sees the arrangement as an opportunity to pursue his senatorial ambition while maintaining his support for President Bola Tinubu.

Speaking with Daily Trust, he said his support for Tinubu predated his departure from the APC, adding that Wike’s political vision aligned with his own.

He said supporting Tinubu would not undermine his senatorial ambition, as the coalition intended to win legislative seats while mobilising votes for the President.

Mafimisebi’s camp is also relying on local support rather than party affiliation alone.

One of his aides, Kayode Bidemi, told Daily Trust that the campaign was mobilising supporters despite the APC’s influence in the state.

“We have been in the APC, and we were not given a chance to contest. We believe our people would vote rightly, not minding a mere logo of APC,” he said.

Political analyst Lasisi Iwu, of the Department of Political Science at Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba-Akoko, said the development could pose a challenge to APC candidates.

He said influential stakeholders sympathetic to the coalition candidates could withhold support from APC candidates, withdraw from their campaigns or redirect their political influence towards preferred candidates in the Wike-led coalition.