A security briefing submitted to an adviser to United States President Donald Trump has raised fresh concerns over the health of Bola Tinubu, alleging that the Nigerian leader is gravely ill and warning that his death before the 2027 presidential election could trigger a major power struggle and violent resistance.

According to the document, Tinubu’s recent three-week trip abroad was extended twice, while he also missed the United Nations General Assembly for the third consecutive year.

Arnold cited what he described as signs of declining health, including a limp left arm and difficulty remaining steady on his feet, while also questioning the editing of an official broadcast involving the Nigerian leader.

I just submitted another briefing to a man who advises President Trump on international security.

He distributes my briefings to the White House, State, DIA, etc, and tells me they are well received. This one especially…

Here is what it says.

Arnold further referred to an image generated with Grok that was allegedly circulated earlier in the year as an authentic image of Tinubu.

He argued that the combination of the president’s extended absence, questions over official broadcasts and what he described as a lack of clarity over who was running the country had created concerns about the state of government.

The briefing warned that if Tinubu dies before Nigeria’s January 16, 2027 election, there could be an immediate struggle for control of the government, with the possibility of violent resistance. Arnold urged Washington to pay closer attention to the political and security implications of any sudden change in leadership.

A major part of the briefing focused on Kashim Shettima and the complex ethnic and political dynamics in northern Nigeria. Arnold alleged that Fulani networks have significant influence across political and security institutions, while arguing that Shettima’s Kanuri background could create tensions over the distribution of power in the event of Tinubu’s death.

The document also drew a comparison with the health crisis surrounding former President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, whose prolonged absence from office in 2009 and eventual death created a period of political uncertainty.

Arnold linked the period that followed to the subsequent escalation of Boko Haram, including a major prison break in Bauchi in 2010 that helped mark a new phase of the insurgency.

However, the allegations about Tinubu’s medical condition have not been independently established by a medical report or other authoritative source, while previous reports and statements from Nigerian officials have rejected claims that he is incapacitated.