On August 2, an anti-Bola Tinubu coalition of 100 Nigerians, under the aegis of G-100, called on opposition leaders to unite behind a single presidential candidate ahead of the 2027 general election.

Their demand was simple: opposition candidates should come together and create a united front that stands a better chance of defeating President Bola Tinubu at the polls in 2027.

The group urged opposition leaders, including Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), as well as their running mates, Rotimi Amaechi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, to set aside their individual ambitions and work towards a common candidate.

The Opposition’s Long Road To Unity
Moving away from the G-100 proposal, Obi and Kwankwaso had initially joined the ADC-led coalition to build a united front against Tinubu. Still, they left the alliance, citing internal divisions and legal disputes.

The duo, who placed third and fourth respectively in the 2023 presidential election, had joined forces with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and several influential politicians under the African Democratic Congress-led alliance.

The coalition had agreed on April 25 to back a single presidential candidate, aiming to deny Tinubu the advantage of a divided opposition field.

However, Obi and Kwankwaso later left the coalition and joined the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). Obi attributed his decision to what he described as “endless court cases, internal battles, suspicion, and division” within the ADC.

When Ambition Gets In The Way
The real problem with the opposition might not be the question of how to defeat President Tinubu, but who should replace him in the reins of power.

Several of the politicians being asked to unite behind a single candidate have presidential ambitions, making the question of who steps aside one of the most difficult issues facing the proposed coalition.

In its August 2 open letter, the G-100 warned that Nigeria is not in a position to survive politicians with scattered ambitions and private calculations.

“The hour is too grave for scattered ambition and private calculation. Nigeria cannot be rescued by opposition leaders who march separately towards the same defeat. They must first agree on the country they seek to rebuild and the reforms they are prepared to defend.

“No people can hope to defeat a united failure with a divided alternative,” the letter stated.

However, the real question remains: can political leaders who have spent years building their own presidential ambitions realistically agree to hand the ticket to someone else?

Even as the G-100 pushes for a consensus candidate, the camps around Atiku and Obi have expressed support for cooperation while remaining cautious about the single-candidate arrangement.

Will The Voters Follow?
Beyond convincing opposition politicians to surrender their ambitions, the proposed coalition faces another difficult task: convincing their supporters to accept a candidate they may not have chosen themselves.

For instance, the Obidient Movement may not automatically transfer their loyalty to Atiku if he emerges as the consensus candidate, just as supporters of Atiku may not necessarily be willing to support Obi.

Tinubu won 8,794,726 votes in 2023, while Atiku got 6,984,520, Obi got 6,101,533, and Kwankwaso received 1,496,687.

On paper, adding the votes secured by the three opposition candidates produces a much larger figure than Tinubu’s.

However, one cannot conclude that opposition supporters would willingly transfer their votes to whichever candidate the politicians select.

CUPP spokesman and convener of the New Direction for Nigeria (NEDMO), Mark Adebayo, expressed doubts about the opposition’s ability to produce a consensus candidate.

He said, “To achieve a single candidate for the opposition, which has been what someone like me and a few others have been advocating for the past one year, prior to the primaries, prior to the time that the optics of the elections, you know, rose up.

“I was very vehement in advocating that the opposition must have a consensus candidate. I was supporting Peter Obi, that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar should support, should suspend his presidential ambition in the overall interest of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, so that the opposition could have a chance to win the election. Because the incumbent president is not someone you go into election with, you know, the man does not play around.

“And when it comes to elections and politics, he’s a master of the game. So the best way that we could do would have been for former Vice President Atiku to avail Peter Obi, for instance, his humongous political structures to support Peter Obi. Whether you like it or not, Peter Obi remains the most popular opposition presidential candidate in this country today. But he cannot win the election alone.

“He cannot. And we were telling them this for a long time. Atiku himself cannot win this election alone.

“But if there’s a combination, if there had been a collaboration between Obi and Atiku, what I’m saying is that Atiku Abubakar at 80 or 81 should, could consider the overall interest of Nigeria and support Peter Obi. That one did not happen. Everybody went their own ways.

“It’s oh Israel to your tent. So that’s what happened. But now that Atiku has emerged as the presidential candidate of the ADC and Peter Obi has emerged as the presidential candidate of NDC, it will be easier to drag a full grown elephant through the eye of the needle than to get these two, one of them to drop his presidential ambition to support the other.

“It will be easier to drag an elephant through the eye of the needle than to achieve that. So, well, I was invited to that meeting. And the other meetings are still coming up.

“But for me, I’m dismissing the idea that the opposition will be able to achieve consensus candidates anymore. We have gone past that. We have gone past that.

“Atiku will not surrender his ambition. Obi, for sure, will not surrender his ambition.

“It would have been better if this was truly about Nigeria. If truly this is about good governance. If truly it is about patriotism.

“It would not have been difficult for his Excellency to support Peter Obi. Even if today he announces that he’s going to support Peter Obi, that he’s endorsing Peter Obi, that he’s collapsing his structures to support Peter Obi, forget the election has been won. For sure, the election has been won.

“As good, as powerful as President Tinubu is. Because I call him the game changer when it comes to politics and elections. The opposition will help him to win this election by this divided house.

“But if Atiku and Obi come together, with Atiku supporting the Peter Obi candidacy for instance, forget. Even with the power, the machinery, the power of incumbency and everything, the opposition will win that election. But don’t let me deceive you.

“For some of us, because of that divided house, we already know that Tinubu is going to win this election.

“You will see that some of us are discouraged. Because you can even see the kind of stones, the kind of cudgels they are using to beat the opposition against the opposition. ADC versus NDC.

“They are already attacking one another. They are already insulting one another. They are already throwing negative banters at one another.

“They are already blackmailing each other. And it doesn’t augur well for the opposition to be that fragmented and divided with all these divisive tactics. Because even Peter Obi himself made a mistake, a fundamental one.

“He should not have gone to the ADC that Atiku acquired for his own presidential ambition. So that’s my own, some of us are disappointed because the opposition has demonstrated a lack of unity by not having a consensus. We needed a consensus candidate.

“Is it now that they have uploaded their names and their logo and everything that one of them will now say I’m withdrawing. I don’t know, but I don’t think that is possible. I don’t, Atiku knows this is his last chance.

“Atiku knows that. Age is not on his side. Age is not on his side.

“Obi cannot step down for Atiku. He cannot. Obedient will roast him, He cannot do that. That’s the thing. So neither of them can do it.

“Unity Cannot Simply Be Announced’
However, the Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication to Atiku, Phrank Shaibu, has stated that while his principal believes in opposition unity, there must be a credible process.

Speaking to Naija News, he described the G-100 as, “Both realistic and worthy of serious consideration. There is a growing recognition across the opposition that the challenge before Nigeria is bigger than the ambition of any one individual or political party.

“His Excellency Atiku Abubakar has consistently demonstrated his belief in dialogue, coalition-building and opposition unity. Any credible process that seeks to bring opposition forces together around a common purpose deserves to be engaged constructively.

“However, unity cannot simply be announced. It has to emerge from genuine consultation, mutual respect and a transparent process that commands the confidence of the parties, candidates and, ultimately, Nigerians.”

When asked what is the biggest obstacle to getting Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso to support one candidate, he said, “I would not describe any individual as an obstacle. The real challenge is building a process that everyone considers fair, credible and capable of producing the strongest possible alternative to President Tinubu.

“These are accomplished political leaders with significant constituencies and legitimate aspirations. The responsibility of those advocating unity is therefore to create a framework in which those aspirations can be discussed without ego, suspicion or predetermined outcomes.

“The conversation should be about Nigeria first: who can build the broadest national coalition, command support across regions and demographics, and offer the leadership required to confront the country’s enormous challenges.”

Asked if Atiku would be willing to step aside and support another candidate if that person emerges as the consensus choice, he replied, “That question gets ahead of a process that has not yet reached that stage.

“Atiku has never been afraid of democratic competition, nor has he ever argued that opposition unity must be constructed solely around his personal ambition. But there must be a credible process, and that process should determine its outcome rather than individuals negotiating hypothetical withdrawals through the media.

“For now, his responsibility is to continue presenting his vision to Nigerians, strengthening the opposition and engaging constructively with every genuine effort capable of rescuing the country from its present direction.”

Asked if a single opposition candidate enough to defeat President Bola Tinubu, Shaibu stated, “A single candidate alone is not a magic wand. Opposition unity would be enormously important, but unity at the top must be matched by organisation at the grassroots.

“You need strong political structures across the states and 8,809 wards, credible candidates at every level, effective mobilisation, election-day organisation, protection of votes and, above all, the confidence of Nigerians.

“The objective therefore cannot simply be to produce one presidential candidate. It must be to build one formidable national movement capable of offering Nigerians a credible alternative and defending their democratic choice.

“The conversation should ultimately be less about who steps aside for whom and more about how the opposition builds the broadest possible coalition to give Nigerians a genuine opportunity for change in 2027.”