As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu enters the last leg of the first tenure of his administration, security remains one of the most defining and contentious issues of his presidency. From the day he assumed office on May 29, 2023, the administration promised to restore order across Nigeria’s troubled regions, defeat terrorism, crush banditry and reclaim communities under siege. Nearly three years later, the government insists significant gains have been made, but persistent attacks, mass abductions and civilian casualties continue to raise difficult questions about the country’s fragile security situation.

In his inaugural speech, President Tinubu assured Nigerians that security agencies would be better equipped and coordinated to confront terrorism, kidnapping and violent crime. The administration quickly projected confidence that the tide would turn against insurgents and bandits. National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu and the then Defence Minister Mohammed Badaru Abubakar repeatedly told Nigerians that terrorists were being degraded and that the security architecture was improving.

To a considerable extent, the administration can point to measurable achievements. Military authorities say more than 13,000 terrorists and armed criminals have been killed since 2023, while nearly 10,000 kidnapped victims were rescued through coordinated operations involving the Army, Air Force, Navy and intelligence agencies. Government officials also highlighted the surrender of over 124,000 Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters and their family members during sustained counterinsurgency operations in the North East.

The administration further claims that notorious bandit camps in parts of Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina and Niger states were dismantled, leading to the reopening of some previously abandoned communities and farming routes. Officials insist that attacks on major highways and mass abductions have reduced in several areas compared to the years preceding Tinubu’s assumption of office.

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Another achievement frequently cited by the government is the improved protection of oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta. Before Tinubu took office, crude oil theft had severely affected Nigeria’s production capacity and revenues. Through intensified security crackdowns and surveillance operations, authorities say pipeline vandalism and illegal bunkering were reduced significantly, helping oil production recover to around 1.5 million to 1.6 million barrels per day by 2025.

The administration has also emphasised stronger coordination among security agencies under the Office of the National Security Adviser. The ONSA, established under the National Security Agencies Act of 1986, remains one of the most strategic institutions in Nigeria’s security framework. It advises the president on national security matters, coordinates intelligence sharing among agencies and supervises counterterrorism strategies.

However, controversy emerged after the creation of the Office of the Special Adviser on Homeland Security by the Tinubu administration. Critics argued that the new office appeared to overlap with the responsibilities of the NSA, potentially creating confusion within the security structure. Some analysts questioned whether the move risked duplication of functions and rivalry among agencies already struggling with coordination challenges.

Supporters of the Homeland Security Office defended the initiative, arguing that it was designed to focus on domestic threats such as border security, organised crime, cyber threats and protection of critical infrastructure, while the NSA retains broader strategic coordination responsibilities. Yet, the debate reflected wider concerns about Nigeria’s increasingly complex security management system.

Despite the administration’s claims of progress, insecurity remains widespread across many parts of the country. Between June and August 2023, only weeks after Tinubu assumed office, attacks intensified in parts of Zamfara, Kaduna, Niger and Sokoto states. Entire communities were raided repeatedly by armed bandits who abducted villagers, imposed levies and forced residents to flee their homes.

In September 2023, attacks on communities in Plateau and Benue states left scores dead and displaced many villagers. The government condemned the violence and promised reinforcements, but the attacks exposed the persistence of deadly communal and armed conflicts in rural areas.

The situation worsened dramatically in December 2023, when coordinated attacks on Bokkos and Barkin Ladi areas of Plateau State reportedly left more than 150 people dead. Villages were razed, thousands displaced and many communities abandoned entirely. The presidency described the attacks as “primitive and cruel,” while the military launched manhunts for the perpetrators. Yet the massacre reinforced growing fears that entire rural settlements were gradually being dislodged by armed groups.

One of the darkest moments under the Tinubu administration came on March 7, 2024, when over 280 pupils and teachers were abducted from schools in Kuriga community of Kaduna State. The mass kidnapping shocked the nation and revived painful memories of previous school abductions under earlier administrations. Although the victims were eventually rescued after weeks in captivity, the incident highlighted the continuing vulnerability of schools and rural communities.

A few days later, suspected Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters abducted scores of internally displaced persons and villagers in Ngala area of Borno State, once again demonstrating the resilience of insurgent networks around the Lake Chad region.

Across 2024 and into 2025, attacks and kidnappings continued in Zamfara, Sokoto, Katsina, Kebbi, Kaduna, Niger and Plateau states, while Borno, Yobe and Adamawa remained under pressure from Boko Haram and ISWAP violence. Benue communities repeatedly suffered deadly raids, and kidnapping incidents spread even into parts of the Federal Capital Territory and surrounding highways.

Perhaps even more controversial than the attacks themselves has been the increasing reliance on military airstrikes in counterinsurgency operations. While the government insists aerial bombardments have weakened insurgent logistics and destroyed criminal hideouts, repeated incidents involving civilian casualties triggered outrage and scrutiny.

The most devastating occurred on December 3, 2023, in Tudun Biri community of Kaduna State, when a military drone mistakenly bombed villagers gathered for Maulud celebrations. Official figures placed the death toll at about 85, although community leaders and rights groups said more than 120 people died, including women and children. The military admitted the gathering was wrongly identified as bandits during surveillance operations.

President Tinubu described the incident as “disturbing and painful” and ordered an investigation. Reports later indicated that some military personnel were recommended for disciplinary action. However, the tragedy deepened concerns over intelligence failures and civilian protection during air operations.

Similar controversies followed. In April 2024, civilians were reportedly killed during military strikes targeting bandits in Zamfara State. In September 2024, another airstrike in Jika da Kolo village of Kaduna State allegedly killed at least 24 civilians near a mosque and residential areas. Further incidents were reported in Sokoto and northwestern states during anti-bandit operations.

The controversy escalated again in April 2026 after reports emerged that military jets pursuing insurgents mistakenly bombed a village market in Jilli, around the border between Yobe and Borno states, with fears that the death toll could exceed 200 people. Human rights organisations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, repeatedly criticised the military over poor intelligence gathering, weak accountability mechanisms and repeated civilian casualties.

The recurring airstrike incidents also exposed a broader dilemma confronting the Tinubu administration, which is balancing aggressive military action against insurgents with the constitutional responsibility to protect civilian lives.

Ungoverned spaces

Beyond military tactics, Nigeria’s geography itself remains one of the greatest obstacles to ending insecurity. Vast forests, game reserves and mountainous terrains across the North East and North West have evolved into sanctuaries for terrorists, bandits and kidnappers.

The Sambisa Forest in Borno State remains one of the most notorious insurgent enclaves in Africa. Thick vegetation, hidden trails and underground shelters allowed Boko Haram fighters to survive years of military offensives. Nearby Alagarno Forest also became a major terrorist haven with strategic routes connecting insurgent networks around Lake Chad.

In the North West, forests such as Rugu, Kuyambana, Kamuku and Sububu have become feared strongholds for armed gangs. Kidnapped victims are often marched deep into these forests where ransom negotiations are conducted far from government control. Security experts say the vastness of these forests, poor road networks, weak telecommunications and porous borders make them extremely difficult to dominate militarily.

Kainji National Park, once a conservation area, reportedly evolved into a transit corridor and temporary operational base for armed groups. Investigations revealed the presence of terrorist camps, illegal mining and abandoned villages now used by criminal networks.

Analysts argue that Nigeria’s security crisis cannot be solved through military operations alone. They point to poverty, unemployment, weak local governance, arms trafficking and poor border management as underlying drivers of violence. Others also warn that prolonged displacement of rural communities risks worsening humanitarian crises and deepening distrust between citizens and the state.

The administration nevertheless insists that the security situation today is better than it was before May 2023. President Tinubu has repeatedly declared that the country is “winning the war against terror,” while NSA Nuhu Ribadu maintains that notorious terrorist leaders have been weakened or eliminated.

Still, many Nigerians remain unconvinced. Across affected states, farmers continue to fear going to their farms, communities still pay levies to armed groups and parents remain anxious about the safety of schools. In many rural areas, the state’s presence remains thin while armed groups continue to exploit difficult terrain and weak infrastructure.

The United States’ divisive narrative

The international dimension of Nigeria’s insecurity also became more visible in late 2025 when former United States President Donald Trump accused Nigeria of failing to stop mass killings of Christians, completely ignoring the fact that thousands of Muslims had also been killed. Trump threatened possible sanctions and aid cuts, describing the violence as genocide. The Nigerian government strongly rejected the allegations, insisting that the crisis affects both Muslims and Christians and is driven by terrorism, banditry and communal conflicts rather than religious persecution. Already, the US had launched an attack around Tangaza in Sokoto State and thereafter, together with the Nigerian security operatives, additional attacks around the Lake Chad axis in Borno State and killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki (also known as Abu Bakr al-Mainuki), widely described as the second-in-command of ISIS globally and a top commander in the Lake Chad region together with dozens of fighters.

Ultimately, the Tinubu administration’s security record reflects a mixture of undeniable military gains and stubborn structural failures. Terrorist networks have suffered heavy pressure, thousands of hostages have been rescued and oil infrastructure protection improved. Yet killings, abductions and mass displacement persist across large parts of the country. At this moment, 0ver 400 people abducted from Jilli as well as teachers and pupils from Oyo State, among many “forgotten” abductees are in the bushes.

As Tinubu prepares to conclude his first tenure, the central question remains whether the government has merely contained insecurity or genuinely moved Nigeria closer to lasting peace. Under the Nigerian Constitution, the security and welfare of citizens remain the primary purpose of government. For millions of Nigerians, still trapped between fear, displacement and violence, that constitutional promise remains only partially fulfilled.