Tinubu, Atiku and Obasanjo are three characters who mean different things in the political landscape of the country. Tinubu wants to equal a record. Atiku wants to create a record. And Obasanjo is against both. His displeasure with both men has once made headlines. If Tinubu is re-elected, he would equal Obasanjo’s record as a two-term democratically elected president. If Atiku wins the 2027 elections, he would break a record after seven attempts. Obasanjo wants none of these to happen. His presence at the National Summit of Opposition Political Party Leaders in Ibadan recently meant two things. He sent an indirect message to Tinubu and a direct message to Atiku. Tinubu and Atiku would read meanings into Obasanjo’s recent position. Obasanjo is never tired of telling patriotic stories about Nigeria from his experiences. His tenure as president was the best, according to his records. And he has been in the face of every president since 2007, when he left office.

Ota Farm

Obasanjo appears vindictive in his political style. He expresses vindictiveness in a saintly manner, as seen in his facial expressions. This is not an attribute of a political godfather. He is known for open letters that sometimes smack of mischief. In 2013, he wrote an open letter to Jonathan, “Before It Is Too Late”. In 2018, he wrote an open letter to Buhari, “The Way Out: A Clarion Call for Coalition for Nigeria Movement”. He also wrote another open letter to Buhari in 2019, “Regarding Insecurity”. He didn’t spare Tinubu either. In 2023, he wrote an open letter to the electorate, “My Appeal to all Nigerians,” endorsing Obi’s candidature against Tinubu and Atiku. Obi basked in this euphoria. Obi didn’t appear disappointed with the outcome of the elections. He was surprised at what he got. I recall a short clip where a popular pastor prophesied that he saw Obi weeping after the elections. And Obi wept on live TV. There were tears of joy and not sorrow in my reckoning.

Tinubu had barely settled down into 2024 when Obasanjo wrote him an open letter, “State of the Nation”. Tinubu called his bluff. He called him “habitual critic” and “busybody.” Obasanjo maintained silence until recently. I watched an outing of him on TV where he said “A government that cannot guarantee the security of life and property of its citizens has forfeited the right of existence.” Tinubu also responded indirectly by saying “my enemies want to use insecurity to get rid of me. But I’m a very stubborn politician. I refuse to go. And I will campaign for my second term”. Unfortunately, “Open Letters” doesn’t determine electoral outcomes in Nigeria. If it did, Obasanjo would have been a political godfather, and not a statesman. And Ota Farm would have been the Bourdillon Road of today.

Political scores to settle

Obasanjo’s grouse with Tinubu is deep-rooted in history. From 1999 to 2007, both men squared up till the end of their tenures. Tinubu didn’t differ. Not even when Lagos local government funds were withheld for three years. Tinubu also survived the PDP’s capture of the states in the southwest. All the AD governors lost their elections, except Tinubu in 2003. Tinubu and Obasanjo are not enemies. They only have political scores to settle. And at the end of the day, one person must defer to the other.

Obi is Obasanjo’s choice and the only card against Tinubu and Atiku. Obi won’t deputise anyone, not because he is convinced about it. He is probably acting out Obasanjo’s script. I can bet he is in a constant conversation with Obasanjo on his political moves. Obasanjo would wine and dine with the devil, if need be, to deny Tinubu and Atiku a political victory. This was what was insinuated by his appearance at the National Opposition Summit in Ibadan recently. Atiku is fighting his political shadows. Obasanjo is not helping matters through Obi. And it has become politically convenient for Obi. Have we wondered what fuels his guts? He crosses carpets easily, like someone controlled remotely. I am sure some Obidients would marvel at some of his political moves. But since he is a “messiah”, it is difficult to criticise him openly. It is always done in hushed tones.

Russian Roulette

Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso are very religious, but they are not miracle workers. If they were, the political outcome of the 2019 and 2023 presidential elections would have been different. I can only imagine Obasanjo’s game plan with how things stand politically. He is bent on stopping Tinubu and Atiku. But the race for the presidency of Nigeria is not a popularity contest. It is a game akin to Russian Roulette. The gamble is not about who the odds favour, but the reality that a single miscalculation in “timing or alignment” can end a career. When you pull the trigger, you miss or hit the target. Atiku and Obi have missed the target after pulling the trigger. Tinubu’s first pull of the trigger hit the target. Russian Roulette is a game of winner takes all.

Obi has decamped from the ADC because it’s obvious, he won’t get the ticket. And as usual, it came with the sort of emotional speech that led to the birth of the Obiedients in 2022. He left the PDP for LP when it was obvious he was not getting the ticket. Obi’s electoral value has dwindled since 2023. He could not manage the fame that came with his first and impressive political outing. It became about him and not the platform that he used. The platform was enmeshed in crisis, but it was not his business and he left, as usual.

Atiku’s popularity is not exciting. He has missed several attempts. And Kwankwaso’s political value is constrained to Kano, and Kano is just one of 36 states. In the Nigerian political Russian Roulette game, Tinubu has a fully loaded chamber. He has a deal with almost everyone who can bring something to the table. He can fire several shots to hit the target. Atiku and Obi have one bullet each in their chambers. They can only fire a single shot. There is a probability that both of them would miss the target.

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A political upset can only happen if Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso are on the same page. This appears to be an impossibility as things stand. The 2023 presidential elections tested Tinubu’s strength. He did what was unprecedented in our political annals. And it appears he is ready to do more in the 2027 contest. He is facing the same political foes whose houses are not in order. A friend told me that this is another version of the infamous “Naira redesign” policy of 2023. The opposition has labelled it as a drive towards a one-party state. The opposition can cry wolf because it truly exists. Tinubu is leaving no stone unturned. It is natural in the type of politics practised in our clime. I am not sure anything has changed. Maybe Tinubu took the notch a step higher to make the “ball far from their court.”

Ocheja, PhD, an alumnus of the Nigerian Defence Academy, is a military historian and creative writer. He is the author of “If you owe him, please pay up” (2026).