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Militants linked to the Islamic State are increasingly active in Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, and Kwara states, turning remote transit corridors into conflict zones.
A report by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project, published on Thursday, shows violent incidents involving Islamist groups in the tri‑border area rose 86% between 2024 and 2025, while fatalities linked to these attacks increased by 262%.
The findings highlight the accelerating spread of jihadist groups across West Africa, where governments and foreign militaries have struggled for more than a decade to contain their advance.
What the data is saying
ACLED noted that fighters aligned with al Qaeda and Islamic State have deepened their presence across the region, including Benin’s Alibori and Borgou departments, Niger’s Dosso region, and Nigeria’s Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, and Kwara states.
The report describes their operations as demonstrating “continued spread, growing lethality, and rising risks to civilians.”
“When comparing 2024 and 2025, the number of violent events involving jihadist groups in the borderland regions of Benin’s Alibori and Borgou departments; Niger’s Dosso department; and Nigeria’s Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, and Kwara states rose by 86%, and the related fatalities increased by 262% . This pattern of violence illustrates a combination of continued spread, growing lethality, and risks to civilians in the regions concerned.”
Communication by jihadist groups in the tri‑border zone has intensified, ACLED said, suggesting competition and potential escalation between rival factions.
Sparse governance and porous borders in frontier regions have long enabled militants to evade security forces, resupply fighters, and assert control over local communities.
ACLED’s data underscores the increasingly lethal and coordinated nature of jihadist activity in northwest Nigeria and neighboring regions.
Get up to speed
Nigeria has contended with Islamist insurgents for more than 15 years, primarily Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the northeast.
However, al Qaeda and Islamic State‑affiliated cells have become more active in the northwest, where dense forests and limited state presence provide favourable terrain.
West Africa hosts a patchwork of jihadist factions, many operating under al Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) or Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP).
Their expansion has exacerbated political instability, contributing to military takeovers in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger since 2020, with soldiers in Benin blaming insecurity for a failed coup attempt in December 2025.
The U.S. conducted airstrikes in Sokoto state in December and has deployed a small number of troops to train Nigerian forces confronting these militants.
Regional coordination has weakened in recent years, as Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali—now governed by military juntas—have partially withdrawn from regional security blocs, hampering joint counterterrorism operations.
More insights
The ACLED report highlights that jihadist groups are increasingly vying for influence and control in frontier regions.
The report warns that continued “outbidding” between factions could further escalate violence and threaten civilians across the tri‑border area.
Remote areas in the northwest remain particularly vulnerable due to weak governance, porous borders, and limited security infrastructure.
The spike in attacks reflects broader trends of jihadist expansion in the Sahel and coastal West Africa, with growing implications for regional stability.
What you should know
In October 2025, US President Donald Trump threatened military action against Nigeria and accused the President Bola Tinubu administration of allowing the mass slaughter of Christians.
Earlier this month, Kwara State witnessed one of its deadliest attacks in 2026, when armed bandits stormed Woro village, killing at least 35 people.
In November, Tinubu directed the immediate withdrawal of police officers attached to Very Important Persons (VIPs) across the country, ordering that these personnel be redeployed to core policing duties.
