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Until late 2023 when the Supreme Court ruled on the issue of a special status for the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in presidential polls, the issue of whether a candidate could be declared winner in a presidential election only after scoring 25 per cent of the votes cast in the election in 2/3 of the 36 states and 25% in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja had been a thorny.
Though the Supreme Court ruled that the FCT does not hold a special status in relation to the requirement for a presidential candidate to secure 25% of votes cast Saturday’s chairmanship and councilorship polls appears to have emboldened the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) about its chances in 2027 while unsettling the opposition parties.
Our correspondents report that the FCT has been a contentious area for the ruling party since its first participation in presidential elections in 2015 as it has consistently lost in the nation’s capital.
But the result of the Saturday polls in which the party clinched five out of the six area council seats is being interpreted as an indication that the party may witness a turn around in 2017.
Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, said the result represents an endorsement of Tinubu by the FCT voters.
“I thank the residents for believing in the renewed and credible democratic process being championed by the government of President Bola Tinubu.
“Yesterday, the residents of FCT demonstrated that they cannot be deceived by emergency democrats, who have chosen not to see anything good in our country and its government,” he stated after the elections.
President Tinubu also commended the FCT Minister though a member of the Peoples Democratic Party for his achievements in the territory, saying it yielded political dividends to the APC.
But former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, expressed dissatisfaction with the process saying the development shows democracy is being suffocated.
The Wazirin Adamawa noted that the present administration has pursued a deliberate policy of “shrinking democratic space, harassing dissenters, coercing defectors, and fostering a climate where alternative political viewpoints are treated as threats rather than contributions to national development.
Analysts, however, maintain that the ruling party has every reason to be concerned about the result of the FCT elections as it is usually considered as the immediate environment of the president and the level of sophistication of the voters is high.
Past elections
In 2015, the APC Presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari lost to Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP as the latter scored 157,195 ahead the former’s 146,399 out of the 316,015 votes cast.
In 2019, the gap widened between Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Buhari of the APC as Atiku polled over 61 per cent of the votes with 259, 997 votes while the APC candidate scored 152, 224 votes representing only over 35.91%
The year 2023 brought in the bigger surprise when the Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi won FCT with a wide margin of 281,717 votes representing 62.23 percent while APC polled 90,902 votes which stood at 20.08%. and PDP followed with 74,193 votes representing 16.39 percent.
Results of the Saturday polls have sparked fresh debate over whether the ruling party can consolidate and win in the FCT in 2027.
While some suggest the area council polls reflect the will of the citizenry in the FCT some say it does not as residents usually do not come out in their numbers during the area council electrons.
The ADC The African Democratic Congress (ADC) in a statement maintained that the council results did not reflect the true will of the electorate.
The party accused electoral officials in some polling units of failing to adhere strictly to guidelines, citing alleged incidents of result manipulation and logistical lapses. Going by precedents, the results is bound to spur political realignments ahead of the 2027 general elections, with analysts offering divergent views on its implications.
In the last area council elections for instance, the Labour Party did not win any area council seat but won overwhelmingly during the presidential elections and went ahead to produce the senator and one out of the two FCT Reps.
Some say this is why it is too early for the APC to start rejoicing as there are many other factors to consider.
A member of the APC in AMAC who does not want to be named said a major factor against the party would be the fact that the FCT minister whose presence is believed to have worked in favour of the APC would not be around during the general elections as he is bound to be in his home state of Rivers.
While the All Progressives Congress (APC) won the majority of the area council seats and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) secured only one, political observers say the results may signal early positioning by key actors — though not necessarily a predictor of 2027 outcomes.
Analysts react
A political analyst, Jide Ojo, told Daily Trust that the performance of the APC reflects deliberate political calculations aimed at strengthening the ruling party’s foothold in the nation’s capital ahead of the next general election.
He linked the development to the political influence of the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, who remains a PDP member.
“I think that is what Wike is working to achieve for the APC. It’s a very interesting development because he remains a member of the PDP, yet he appears committed to delivering the FCT and possibly Rivers State to the president,” Ojo said.
According to him, the minister’s political manoeuvres, including disrupting consensus arrangements in some area councils, may have shaped the poll’s outcome.
Ojo recalled that during the 2023 presidential election, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu failed to secure 25 per cent of the votes in the FCT — a development he described as a concern for the ruling party at the time.
“Possibly that explains why, despite controversies surrounding Wike, the president has retained him. In politics, anyone who can deliver votes is considered an asset,” he added.
On the performance of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which failed to make significant gains, Ojo said the party remains in transition.
“ADC is in a state of fluidity. They are preparing for their congresses next month to put proper party structures in place — from local government to state levels and the National Working Committee. They are also recruiting new members,” he said.
He noted that pending legal challenges could also affect the party’s readiness for 2027.
“I foresee a situation where consensus options may lead to imposition of candidates. That could cause implosion in major parties because those who feel sidelined may seek alternative platforms,” Ojo said, adding that such a scenario could position smaller parties as attractive options for aggrieved aspirants.
However, a professor of political science, Kamilu Sani Fage, disagreed that the FCT election could determine the outcome of the 2027 general elections.
“No, it doesn’t determine and it will not determine,” Fage said. “If one looks at what happened in the election in Abuja, one knows that the power of incumbency was used in many places. So that is not a true indication of the wish and will of the people.”
He argued that opposition parties are currently grappling with internal challenges that must be addressed if they are to mount a credible challenge in 2027.
“The opposition have their own problems. They are yet to put their house in order. Both PDP and ADC are yet to stabilise internally. Unless they do that, they may not likely do well in the general election,” he said.
Fage noted that the ruling party enjoys structural advantages, including control of government institutions and significant resources.
“The ruling party is in control in many places. It has the power of government behind it and huge resources. These are mounting challenges the opposition will have to face,” he added.
According to him, opposition parties must present a united front and field credible candidates at all levels if they hope to make meaningful impact in 2027.
“They must unite and present credible candidates. Without that, it will be a Herculean task,” he said.
Observers say although the FCT poll may not conclusively determine the 2027 trajectory, it has nonetheless provided a glimpse into shifting alliances, strategic manoeuvres and the intense groundwork already underway ahead of the next general elections.
