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The Federal Government has projected total revenue of N50.74 trillion for 2026, alongside a targeted economic growth rate of 4.68 per cent, while its proposed 2026 deficit has risen so sharply that it now exceeds the entire national budget of 2022 by N2.78tn, The PUNCH reports.
This deficit likely means the government plans to borrow about 16.1 per cent more than what the entire country spent in 2022. The scale of the gap, combined with the high debt service bill, signals a more difficult fiscal year ahead.
Experts noted that Nigeria risks sliding into deeper fiscal stress if the government does not tighten its expenditure planning, boost efficiency and re-establish a credible budget calendar. They warned that rising deficits, unpredictable budget cycles and mounting debt obligations could undercut the fragile economic stability recorded in recent months and heighten pressure on households and businesses in 2026.
This comes after the Federal Executive Council approved the 2026 to 2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper on Wednesday. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, briefed State House correspondents after the meeting and confirmed that the document would be forwarded to the National Assembly on Monday.
Bagudu said the draft was built on a cautious oil price benchmark of 64.85 dollars per barrel and an exchange rate estimate of N1,512 to one dollar for 2026. He explained that the assumptions followed consultations with ministries, private sector operators, civil society groups and development partners.
He revealed that the government adopted dual crude production figures for the first time. The oil industry has been tasked to deliver 2.06 million barrels per day, while a more conservative benchmark production of 1.8 million barrels per day will guide the budget.
The difference provides a safety buffer of 12.6 per cent in case of output disruptions. Bagudu said the benchmark price of $64.85 was lower than what Nigeria usually earns for Bonny Light crude but insisted that caution was necessary
