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The World Bank has said Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu’s administration have begun to yield positive macroeconomic results, but warned that these gains have not yet translated into improved living conditions for most citizens .
The position was contained in its latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU) report released on Wednesday in Abuja, titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home.” The report assessed the country’s economic performance and outlined key policy priorities to ensure that ongoing reforms lead to inclusive and sustainable growth.
According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.9 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, compared to 3.5 per cent during the same period in 2024. Growth, it said, was driven by stronger performance in services and non-oil industries, as well as improvements in oil production and agriculture.
The report also noted that Nigeria’s external position had strengthened, with foreign reserves exceeding $42 billion and the current account surplus rising to 6.1 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Fiscal indicators were also said to have improved, as the federal deficit remained broadly unchanged at 2.6 per cent of GDP despite lower oil prices, while public debt was projected to decline from 42.9 to 39.8 per cent of GDP—the first drop in over a decade.
However, the Bank cautioned that macroeconomic stability had not yet translated into tangible relief for households, as food inflation and poverty levels remained high. It noted that many poor households continued to struggle, with the cost of a basic food basket increasing fivefold between 2019 and 2024.
“The Nigerian government has taken bold steps to stabilise the economy, and these efforts are beginning to yield results,” said Mathew Verghis, World Bank Country Director for Nigeria. “But macroeconomic stability alone is not enough. The true measure of success will be how these reforms improve the daily lives of Nigerians—especially the poor and vulnerable.”
The report identified three urgent priorities for Nigeria: tackling food inflation by removing trade barriers and addressing structural bottlenecks in agriculture and logistics; improving the efficiency and transparency of public spending; and expanding social protection systems through regular, domestically financed cash transfers and safety nets for vulnerable households.
Samer Matta, the Bank’s Senior Economist for Nigeria, added that while the economic outlook remained cautiously optimistic—with growth projected to rise from 4.2 per cent in 2025 to 4.4 per cent in 2027—inflation would continue to pose a major challenge.
“[b]Food inflation remains the biggest tax on the poor,” Matta said, emphasising the need for continued monetary discipline and sustained structural reforms to ensure the benefits of economic recovery reach ordinary Nigerians]/b].
