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Nasir El-Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna, has intensified his criticism of the current administration, predicting that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will finish third in the 2027 presidential election.
El-Rufai, now a leader of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition, stated on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics that he had “done my maths” and concluded that Tinubu has no “pathway to win” the election outright on the first ballot.
“Tinubu will be third in the 2027 election. I have done my maths and I can tell you Tinubu has no pathway to win. The worst case scenario is that there will not be any winner in the first ballot,” he said.
He urged Nigerians to evaluate the government based on their personal well-being.
“Ask yourself, is your life better now under President Tinubu?” he said.
He further added that there is “no pretense of good intentions” and that the government should be open to assessment after just a few weeks in office.
Addressing his own political ambitions, the former governor dismissed any desire to be a minister, stating he was a minister at the age of 23 and has no need for the position.
He did, however, acknowledge that he had been considered for the role of energy minister, for which he had a clear roadmap to transform the sector.
El-Rufai, who was a key member of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and a strong campaigner for President Tinubu in the 2023 elections, has now joined forces with figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Labour Party candidate Peter Obi.
He also commented on the issue of party loyalty and victory, saying that it is the people, not the governors, who decide who wins.
“I was in APC yet I did not deliver my state. Bola Tinubu did not win his state,” he noted.
He further critiqued the government’s handling of insecurity, claiming that while officials often announce that terrorists have been killed, the “elements are often found in the streets.”
On the commitment of some of his new allies, such as Chibuike Amaechi and Peter Obi, to govern for only a single four-year term, El-Rufai expressed skepticism.
“I want them to stop making this kind of commitment. Nobody believes them. Things change once they get in,” he said, adding that such a promise is “even unfair”.
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”The worst case scenario in the 2027 elections is that no winner will emerge in the first round and we may go for a run-off and Bola Tinubu will not be on the ballot for that run-off. He will at best be 3rd in that election.”
