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BY-ELECTIONS: PARTIES MAINTAIN STRONGHOLDS
Major political parties that participated in the Saturday’s by-elections into 16 federal constituencies across 12 states largely maintained their strongholds, according to results declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
From the official tally, the All Progressives Congress (APC) secured 12 of the 16 seats; while the coalition-led African Democratic Congress (ADC) won none
Despite vigorous campaigns in Kaduna led by former Governor Nasir El-Rufai, which drew a large crowd across the state, and the endorsement of the ADC by 2023 Labour Party’s presidential candidate Peter Obi, the party still failed to secure a single seat.
Analysts said the outcome reinforced the view that crowd size does not always translate into electoral victory. They also noted that the off-cycle elections might have come too early for the coalition, which only formally adopted the ADC as its platform in July.
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But some analysts said the crowd pulled by El-Rufai might have made the state government to make extra efforts to deliver the state for the APC.
The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) won two seats; while the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) secured one seat each.
This is even as the INEC declared the Kaura-Namoda South Constituency’s by-election in Zamfara State inconclusive.
Announcing the decision, the Returning Officer, Prof. Lawal Sa’adu of the Federal University, Gusau, explained that the margin between the leading party and the runner-up was less than the number of Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) collected in polling units where results were cancelled.
Citing Sections 24 (2) and (3), 47 (3) and 51 (2) of the Electoral Act 2022, Prof. Sa’adu ruled the poll inconclusive.
He said elections were cancelled in two registration areas in Sakajiki and Kyambarawa wards. In Sakajiki (code 06), two polling units with 1,357 registered voters and 1,298 collected PVCs were affected; while in Kyambarawa (code 05), three polling units with 4,088 registered voters and 1,964 collected PVCs were cancelled.
Altogether, 5,446 voters were registered in the affected areas, with 3,265 PVCs collected.
Preliminary results had shown the APC leading with 7,001 votes, followed by the PDP with 5,339 votes—a margin of 1,662. But since this margin was less than the 3,265 collected PVCs in the affected polling units, the election was not concluded.
Suspected political thugs arrested in Bagwai/Shanono area of Kano State during the Saturday’s by-elections Photo: Salim Umar Ibrahim
Kaduna
In Kaduna State, the APC won, with Governor Uba Sani’s preferred candidates defeating those backed by El-Rufai under the ADC.
The INEC declared Felix Joseph Bagudu of the APC winner of the Chikun–Kajuru Federal Constituency by-election; while Mallam Sani Dahiru Umar, also of the APC, won the Basawa State Constituency race.
The Returning Officer for the federal constituency poll, Prof. Abubakar Jumare, announced Bagudu’s victory in the early hours of Sunday. He said Bagudu polled 34,580 votes across the two local government areas that make up the constituency, defeating his closest rival, Princess Esther Ashivelli Dawaki of the PDP, who scored 11,491 votes.
In Kajuru LGA, the APC garnered 10,487 votes compared with the PDP’s 6,789. In Chikun LGA, the ruling party posted a landslide, winning 24,093 votes against the PDP’s 4,702. The ADC, backed by El-Rufai, got 3,477 votes.
Prof. Jumare described the contest as “keenly fought”, but noted that the exercise was generally peaceful. Bagudu will now fill the House of Representatives seat left vacant by the death of Labour Party’s member, Ekene Abubakar Adam.
In Basawa, the Returning Officer, Prof. Nasiru Rabi’u of Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, declared Umar the winner with 10,926 votes. He defeated Mu’azu Salisu Danyaro of the PDP, who polled 5,499.
The ruling party also won the Zaria Kewaye state constituency with Isa Haruna Mohammed (Ihamo) polling 26,613 votes to defeat his closest rival, Nuhu Abdullahi Muazu of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), who polls 5, 721 votes.
The NNPP, which controls Kano, won the Bagwai/Shanono State Assembly by-election.
Announcing the result, the Returning Officer, Prof. Hassan Adamu Shitu, declared the NNPP candidate winner with 16,198 votes against the APC’s 5,347.
Meanwhile, the APC triumphed in the Ghari/Tsanyawa supplementary election. Prof. Muhammad Waziri of Bayero University, the Returning Officer, said APC’s Garba Ya’u Gwarmai scored 31,472 votes to defeat Yusuf Ali Maigado of the NNPP, who got 27,931. But the NNPP has rejected the results
Edo
In Edo State, the APC retained its hold by winning both seats contested. INEC declared Dr Joseph Ikpea winner of the Edo Central Senatorial by-election, while Omosede Igbinedion secured the Ovia Federal Constituency.
The seats became vacant after Senator Monday Okpebholo and Dennis Idahosa, who had occupied the respective positions, emerged as governor and deputy governor in the 2024 off-cycle governorship election.
Prof. Kingsley Ubaorji, INEC’s Returning Officer for the senatorial race, announced that Ikpea polled 105,129 votes to defeat PDP’s Joe Okojie, who had 15,146.
For Ovia, Returning Officer Prof. Clement Ighodalo declared Igbinedion winner with 77,053 votes. PDP’s Johnny Aikpitanyi got 3,838 votes, while ADC’s Dr. Sandra Asemota finished third with 925.
Adamawa
In Adamawa State, the APC won the Ganye State Constituency by-election, despite the state being controlled by the PDP under Governor Ahmadu Fintiri.
Despite the coalition-led ADC failing to field a candidate for the election, it was believed that key coalition leaders like the 2023 governorship candidate, A’isha Binani, might have teamed up with the APC led by the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, to deliver a defeat to the ruling PDP.
The contest was closely fought. APC’s Misa Musa polled 15,923 votes to narrowly edge out Buba Muhammad of the PDP, who scored 15,794.
The Returning Officer, Tukur Ahmed, announced the results at the collation centre in Ganye Local Government headquarters. He noted that the ADC recorded 42 votes, APGA 14, Action Alliance two, and the African Action Congress 17.
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) adhoc staff capturing the face of a voter in Esan South-East during the by-election in Edo State on Saturday
Niger
Similarly, in Niger State, the INEC declared APC’s Mathew Dogara Daje winner of the House of Assembly by-election in Munya Local Government Area.
Daje defeated PDP’s Sabo Sunday Adabyinlo by over 6,000 votes. The state is under APC control.
Announcing the result at Sarkin Pawa, the LGA headquarters, the Returning Officer, Prof. Abdulkarim Saka of the Federal University of Technology, Minna, said the APC candidate polled 12,556 votes, while the PDP secured 5,646.
He added that there were 62,459 registered voters, 19,857 accredited voters, and 19,855 total votes cast.
However, PDP candidate Adabyinlo rejected the result, alleging that the APC-led government in the state used state resources to influence the poll in favour of the ruling party.
Jigawa
In Jigawa State, the APC’s Alhaji Rabiu Mukhtar won the Garki-Babura Federal Constituency by-election with 38,449 votes. His closest rival, Auwalu Isah Manzo of the PDP, polled 13,519; while the NNPP candidate got 2,931.
The Returning Officer, Prof. Salisu Ibrahim, described the election as free, fair and credible.
But opposition parties disagreed, accusing the APC of manipulating the process through vote buying. They insisted the exercise was neither free nor fair.
The PDP formally rejected the outcome, with its state Publicity Secretary, Umar Kyari Jitau Madamuwa, alleging that the APC used state power, voter intimidation and harassment to tilt the contest.
Anambra
In Anambra, the APGA further consolidated its dominance in the state. Emmanuel Nwachukwu was declared winner of the Anambra South Senatorial District by-election.
The Returning Officer, Prof. Frank Ojiako, announced that Nwachukwu polled 90,408 votes, defeating APC’s Chief Azuka Okwuosa, who secured 19,847.
Anambra has long been regarded as APGA’s stronghold.
Ogun
In Ogun State, the APC’s candidate, Mrs. Adesola Ayoola-Elegbeji, won the Ikenne/Sagamu/Remo North Federal Constituency by-election, though the process was reportedly marred by violence and allegations of voter intimidation in parts of the constituency.
The Returning Officer, Prof. Kazeem Bello, announced that Ayoola-Elegbeji polled 41,237 votes. PDP’s Bola Oluwole followed with 14,324; while ADC’s Solomon Osho finished with 289.
Oyo
In Oyo State, the PDP’s candidate, Folajinmi Oyekunle, won the Ibadan North Federal Constituency by-election.
Oyekunle polled 18,404 votes to beat APC’s Adewale Olatunji, popularly known as Murphy, who scored 8,312. ADC’s Femi Akin-Alamu secured 88, while APGA’s Olabisi Olajumoke got 40.
The outcome reinforced Oyo’s status as a PDP stronghold.
Taraba
In Taraba State, the APC’s candidate, Abner Shittu, was declared winner of the Karim I Constituency. He polled 5,901 votes to defeat his PDP rival, who secured 5,527. The ADC candidate finished third with 2,069 votes; while the SDP polled just 106.
Although Taraba is governed by the PDP, analysts said the APC’s breakthrough signalled a troubling sign for the ruling party ahead of the 2027 elections.
Kogi
In Kogi State, the INEC declared APC’s Hassan Shado winner of the by-election for the Okura State Constituency.
The Returning Officer, Prof. Emmanuel Enenche Onome, announced that the APC’s candidate polled 55,073 votes; while the PDP’s got 1,038. The Allied Peoples Movement (APM) candidate secured 445.
Kano APC rejects Shanono/Bagwai State Assembly by-election result
Meanwhile, the APC in Kano has rejected the outcome of the by-election in Bagwai/Shanono State Constituency, describing it as a “charade”.
Addressing journalists in Kano, the Minister of State for Housing and Urban Development, Yusuf Abdullahi Ata, alleged that armed thugs were imported from neighbouring states and even outside the country to intimidate voters and disrupt the process.
“On the day of the election, as early as 5am, Shanono and Bagwai local government areas were invaded by thousands of armed thugs wielding dangerous weapons, including guns, allegedly recruited from Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and beyond,” Ata said.
According to him, residents fled their communities after sighting strange faces, relocating to neighbouring Gwarzo and Bichi LGAs.
He further claimed that the APC candidate was attacked at his residence.
He added: “The people of Bagwai/Shanono, who have been patiently waiting for the by-election since the demise of their representative, Hon. Halilu Ibrahim Kundila in April last year, were disenfranchised, traumatised and chased away from their homes.”
The minister called on INEC to cancel the election and fix a new date for a free, fair and transparent poll. He also urged security agencies to prosecute those arrested in connection with the violence.
“How can we claim to uphold democracy when citizens are chased away from their homes hours before the election? An election marred by violence is no election at all,” Ata said.
Also speaking in a telephone interview with Daily Trust, the APC’s National Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, said the by-election results would shape 2027 political dynamics.
“Certainly, it will have an impact. This is a demonstration of the fact that contrary to what the opposition is saying—that the people are disenchanted with us—the reverse is the case.
“In fact, we aimed for more, we expected more, but given the challenges, we are not disappointed,” he said.
NNPP rejects Ghari/Tsanyawa result
The NNPP in Kano State rejected the outcome of the Ghari/Tsanyawa State Assembly re-run election, alleging manipulation and collusion between politicians and INEC officials.
Briefing newsmen, the state chairman, Hashimu Sulaiman Dungurawa, said: “In Ghari Local Government, the re-run was conducted peacefully at the 10 polling units, but through manipulation by some unpatriotic politicians who connived with INEC officials, the APC candidate was declared winner.”
The NNPP vowed to continue resisting what it described as injustice, favoritism and electoral fraud, insisting that presiding officers at the polling units had already signed results that should have been upheld.
However, the party commended the conduct of the Shanono/Bagwai bye-election, where its candidate was declared winner, describing the process as credible. It praised security agencies for providing an enabling environment and lauded voters for turning out massively.
Results not a measure of coalition’s strength – ADC
The coalition-led ADC alleged that the by-elections were characterised by intimidation, vote buying and manipulation.
In a statement yesterday, the party’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, said the elections exposed the extent of decay in Nigeria’s electoral system.
“The exercise was riddled with widespread violence, vote buying, manipulation and administrative lapses,” the ADC said.
The party stressed that the results should not be taken as a measure of the strength or capacity of the opposition coalition, but rather as “a sad reflection of how far the system has been corrupted against the will of the people.”
“When elections are marred by violence, ballots are brazenly exchanged for money, opposition candidates are excluded without explanation, and institutions meant to safeguard democracy become complicit, the vote of the ordinary Nigerian ceases to have meaning,” the statement said.
The ADC alleged that in one state, a vote buyer was caught with ₦25.9 million, while in another, election officials were implicated in inducements.
“This is no longer isolated malpractice; it is fast becoming the political culture of our electoral process under the APC.
“After so many years, the repeated failure of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) in some states has again raised questions about INEC’s competence, sincerity and perhaps complicity. Nigerians deserve elections that command the confidence of citizens and the respect of the world. INEC must not be allowed to turn excuses into a code of conduct,” the statement read.
What by-elections mean for 2027 – Analysts
Political analysts said the by-elections should not be used as a yardstick to measure the strength of the ADC or other opposition forces ahead of 2027.
Prof. Gbade Ojo, a political scientist, said the low voter turnout that characterised the polls reflected prevailing realities in the country.
“Off-cycle elections usually attract low turnout because Nigerians are more concerned about their economic well-being than civil obligations,” he said.
He added that by-elections are often a verdict on the performance of governments and officeholders, noting that it was worrisome that some constituencies recorded fewer than 30,000 votes in total.
On the ADC, he said: “It is too early and premature to measure the strength of the ADC from Saturday’s outcome. The party practically had no presence until the coalition forces chose the platform, and they are only just beginning to recruit members.
“If we use the by-election to judge, the APC may dismiss the ADC as a strong opposition. A minister losing his ward has nothing to do with this election, especially if such a person is not a grassroots politician.”
Ojo stressed that the priority for government should be prosecuting those arrested for electoral malpractice to send a strong message ahead of 2027.
Dr Sikiru Lanre Nurudeen, Associate Professor and Deputy Vice Chancellor of Al-Hikmah University, Ilorin, said the ADC should not be judged by the polls, noting that the coalition is still finding its footing.
He said the results showed the APC remained on the ground with strong mobilisation capacity, but added that the ruling party itself should not take comfort, as the true test will come in the next two years when its reforms are fully assessed.
“The APC cannot be written off in 2027, but the ADC must go beyond media campaigns and build grassroots structures,” he said.
On APC’s chieftains losing in their polling units, he said while the case of former Jigawa governor and Minister Abubakar Badaru was significant, it called for “soul-searching” rather than outright panic.
Dr Mohammed Alada of the University of Ilorin took a more critical stance, arguing that the ADC failed to inspire confidence.
“This should have been a litmus test to show prospects, even if they didn’t win seats. But being permanently down raises questions about the party’s standing,” he said.
He argued that the problem lay with the personalities driving the coalition. “Many of its leaders came together not out of shared ideals, but personal grievances. Nigerians see that most of them did not perform well in their previous parties. That makes the coalition look more like a political business venture than a movement.”
Tinubu congratulates winners
President Bola Tinubu congratulated winners of the by-elections in 16 constituencies across 12 states, where the APC emerged dominant.
In a statement signed by his spokesperson, Bayo Onanuga, on Sunday, Tinubu commended INEC for its conduct of the polls and praised APC National Chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, for the victories recorded under his leadership.
