THE TINUBU, KWANKWASO MEETING THAT NEVER HELD

THE TINUBU, KWANKWASO MEETING THAT NEVER HELD

On Monday, media reports (not Daily Trust) suggested that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the national leader of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), held a secret meeting at the Presidential Villa.

The report, which has since been debunked to Daily Trust by close aides of the former Kano State governor and credible sources at the Presidency, emerged amidst speculation that the presidency was finalising plans to seal Kwankwaso’s return to the ruling party, as permutations of his potential emergence as vice presidential candidate for the 2027 election continued to gather momentum.

According to the purported report, “Former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, on Monday held a closed-door meeting with President Bola Tinubu at the president’s official residence.

“The meeting followed Kwankwaso’s appearance at the opening of the Nigeria Forest Economy Summit 2025 held at the State House Conference Centre, Abuja.

“It is the second publicly known encounter between the two men in just over two years.

“Their last recorded meeting in the Aso Rock Villa took place on June 9, 2023, days after Tinubu’s inauguration, making Kwankwaso the first presidential candidate to visit the President.

“Addressing State House correspondents at the time, Kwankwaso said he discussed politics and governance with the president. He also said he might work with Tinubu, but did not state the details.

“Although Monday’s meeting was not open to the press, the visit came only weeks after the opposition African Democratic Congress announced a broad-based coalition aimed at challenging the ruling All Progressives Congress in the 2027 elections.

“Presidency sources contacted for this report could not confirm the details of the discussion between the two men.

“One source said the meeting was held at the residence and was, therefore, off limits for most aides,” the newspaper reported.

However, one of the sources close to Kwankwaso said, “That narrative is far from the truth. Kwankwaso was only at the Villa for the stated conference and nothing more.”

Also, two sources at the Presidency revealed that the meeting between Tinubu and Kwankwaso did not hold.

For instance, the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Political and other Matters, Ibrahim Kabir Masari, described the Tinubu/Kwankwaso meeting as “Fake News”.

The other source said, “There was nothing like that. If the meeting has held either in the office or at the residence, it will be known. Take it from me, there was nothing like that.”

The reality on ground

If anything, the relationship being reportedly cultivated between the duo appears to have hit a brick wall after weeks of political speculation ahead of the 2027 contest.

The expected alliance, which had seemed close to materialising following the abrupt resignation of Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje — Kwankwaso’s political foe — as national chairman of the president’s All Progressives Congress (APC), now appears to have reached a dead end.

Until June 27, when Ganduje surprisingly threw in the towel, citing ill health in what many considered an unconvincing excuse, political observers had seen his presence at the helm of the ruling party as the main obstacle to Kwankwaso’s return to the APC.

However, the faint hope for an alliance appeared to flicker out between Thursday and the early hours of Friday. First, it was Kwankwaso who, uncharacteristically, fired the first salvo.

Speaking in Kano, just days after his aides debunked rumours of a secret meeting with the president, the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement accused the Tinubu administration of neglecting the North and channelling national resources into developing the Southern region, where the president hails from. His accusations resonated across the North, where leaders including some within the APC, had previously expressed concerns about perceived nepotism by the president.

The event at which he made these remarks also raised eyebrows, as it was a Kano State government-sponsored programme broadcast live on television. Many had questioned why the state, outside the National Assembly’s arrangement for a constitution review zonal hearing, decided to organise its own “stakeholders’ dialogue” to present its position on the 2025 constitution amendment proposals — just two weeks after the Kaduna zonal hearing involving Kano, Kaduna, Katsina and Jigawa States.

Those wondering about the rationale for the event got their answer when Kwankwaso, widely regarded as the political godfather of Kano, took the stage and hit the president with a below-the-belt jab.

“Let me advise those who are struggling by all means to take everything to remember that some of the issues that we have in this part of the country today have to do with the lack of enough resources and mismanagement of the little that comes in. That is why we have insecurity, we have poverty and so on. It is happening here mainly, but like a desert, it would go everywhere,” he said.

Kwankwaso said most roads in the North were in deplorable condition, while the APC-led government continued to allocate massive funds for infrastructure in the South.

“Yesterday (Wednesday), I was to come by air, but unfortunately, my airline decided to shift our takeoff from 3pm to 8pm. I had to come by road. From Abuja to Kaduna to Kano was a hell.”

Sensing the weight of these remarks, Sunday Dare, Special Adviser on Media and Communication to Tinubu, responded on Friday, faulting Kwankwaso’s claims that the federal government had sidelined the North.

In a post on X, Dare said the former Kano governor’s position did not align with “facts on the ground.”

He went on to list more than 40 projects and programmes across sectors that the Tinubu administration had initiated or sustained in northern Nigeria over two years.

Strengthening NNPP base as options increase

Doubling down on his message, Kwankwaso on Friday posted on his own X account that he had welcomed thousands of defectors from the All Progressives Congress (APC) into the NNPP at his residence in Kano.

He said the NNPP’s growing influence and “distinguished leadership style” in Kano continued to attract new members, encouraging more to join.

“Yesterday was a momentous occasion, as I received thousands of defectors from the All Progressives Congress (APC) into the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP),” he stated.

“Speaking during the event at my residence in Kano, I welcomed the new members into our party and promised them equitable treatment and cooperation.

“The distinguished leadership style in Kano and our political leadership keep attracting more people into our fold, and I encourage those considering joining to do so without any hesitation,” the tweet read.

For a politician who had remained unusually quiet while the opposition coalition in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) gathered momentum, Kwankwaso’s comments have left many wondering what became of the alliance the president had sought to cement as early as 2023.

Recall that shortly after Tinubu’s victory in 2023, reports emerged of a meeting between the two in Paris, with credible sources confirming that Kwankwaso had agreed to work with the president. The report was hardly surprising, as Kwankwaso had said before the election that if he were not contesting, he would have supported Tinubu’s candidacy.

Close Kwankwaso’s aides even confirmed he had agreed to serve as a minister in Tinubu’s government. But when the president’s list of 45 ministers was released in August 2023, Kwankwaso’s name was conspicuously missing, signalling the first visible crack in the alliance.

A flicker of hope returned when Tinubu reportedly directed Ganduje, then APC chairman, to initiate reconciliation with Kwankwaso and facilitate his return to the party. But Ganduje’s hostility to the idea was apparent, as his public comments were believed to have further strained the would-be alliance.

So when speculation emerged that there was tension within the presidency and that Tinubu might not retain Vice President Kashim Shettima on his 2027 ticket, Kwankwaso’s name once again surfaced as a possible replacement. Thus, Ganduje’s abrupt resignation was seen by analysts as a move to pave the way for Kwankwaso’s return to the APC.

Sources also told Daily Trust at the time that Kwankwaso, whom Tinubu is believed to have long courted, was being approached by the Atiku-led opposition coalition.

“You know Kwankwaso gave the president one condition for rejoining the APC: Ganduje’s removal as national chairman. With Ganduje in charge, Kwankwaso couldn’t assume party leadership in Kano.

“We learnt that the president was informed that Kwankwaso had been approached by the Atiku-led coalition and was already considering the offer. That may have triggered Ganduje’s removal,” a source close to the presidency added.

Following Monday’s rumoured meeting with the president, which never happened, Kwankwaso’s top aides told Weekend Trust that their principal is in no rush to decide whether to work with Tinubu or join the Atiku-led coalition.

“The options before Jagora (Kwankwaso’s affectionate name) are about four now. The option of working with Tinubu has existed since before the 2023 election, but that one is not straightforward. He could either outrightly join the ruling party with or without the offer of a vice presidency, or he could remain in the NNPP with a deal that allows him to control Kano State in 2027 while he runs for president mainly to block Atiku from gaining a foothold.

“Another option is to align with the Atiku-led ADC. But that’s tricky. Since 2019, Madugu (another nickname for Kwankwaso) and Atiku haven’t been on good terms due to the fallout of the 2019 elections. There’s mutual distrust.

“The last option, which we’re all still watching, is returning to the PDP. We’ve heard that some people are lobbying former President Goodluck Jonathan to run again since he’s only eligible for one term — and some are already advancing Jagora as his potential running mate. That’s why he’s not speaking yet. He’s still observing,” a senior aide, who asked not to be named, told Weekend Trust earlier in the week.

Criticism could be a strategy to pressure Tinubu – Dr Hayatu

Providing context, a Kano-based political analyst, Dr Aminu Hayatu, said Kwankwaso’s latest moves may be aimed at forcing Tinubu’s hand, especially now that speculation about dropping Shettima is waning.

“If you observe Kwankwaso’s body language and what has been transpiring between him and Tinubu, you’ll see that Tinubu really wants him in his camp. But Kwankwaso has his own calculations. He could have moved to the APC already, but he’s holding back because it’s too early,” Hayatu said.

“It’s a political gamble. He’s buying time to observe developments. His calculation isn’t just about Tinubu, it’s also about the evolving dynamics in the opposition. He’s watching carefully to decide where to throw his weight.”

Hayatu, a senior lecturer in political science at Bayero University, Kano, said Kwankwaso’s criticism should not be taken at face value.

“Whenever he criticises Tinubu, it doesn’t mean they’re done. He’s doing it to pressurise the administration and show he’s a formidable figure who shouldn’t be ignored.

“It seems the presidency is taking him for granted now. When talk of dropping the vice president started, he sensed an opportunity. But now that’s cooled off, he probably feels overlooked; and as a politician, he has to periodically demonstrate his strength, whether by criticising the administration or welcoming defectors like he did yesterday.”

He said Kwankwaso’s political strategy is calculated, not confrontational.

“It’s not about fighting Tinubu. It’s a strategic push to extract meaningful concessions.”

Hayatu also noted that Kwankwaso is treading carefully with the opposition coalition.

“He wants to be sure he’s backing the right side,” he added.

“In the end, it’s the political dynamics that will determine whether he joins the APC or not. And don’t forget, his base matters. If he joins the APC, there’s a risk of losing support, especially since many of his followers are Tinubu critics.

“In politics, you measure your strength and vulnerability against available opportunities and threats. His calculations are ongoing. It won’t be surprising if he makes a move soon, either towards the APC or by consolidating his NNPP base.

“What he’s after is not necessarily the presidency, he knows that’s unlikely right now. But he’s positioning himself to negotiate a meaningful role in government.

“He’s in no hurry to choose between Tinubu and the opposition. He’ll wait and watch until the timing is right.”

How the ‘relationship’ started

For nearly two years, the political atmosphere had been filled with conjectures suggesting that Kwankwaso, who garnered a significant 1,496,687 votes in the 2023 presidential election, had indirectly aided Tinubu’s path to victory by allegedly eroding the northern base of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi. Tinubu secured only 517,341 votes in Kano State, which is far behind Kwankwaso’s 997,279, but enough to block Atiku, who managed just 131,716 votes in the state.

Some analysts believe that had Kwankwaso stepped aside and endorsed Atiku, the PDP candidate could have enjoyed a significant northern surge, possibly changing the national outcome.

Tinubu ultimately won the presidency with 8,794,726 votes, while Atiku got 6,984,520. The margin, which is just over 1.8 million votes, raises eyebrows when juxtaposed against Kwankwaso’s haul, particularly in Kano and neighbouring states such as Jigawa and Katsina. The arithmetic provides a tempting basis for the theory that Kwankwaso was a silent enabler of Tinubu’s victory, even if unintentionally.

With the political climate gradually tilting toward the 2027 general elections, Kwankwaso’s next move could have far-reaching consequences. Should he contest again or throw his weight behind a major contender especially one from the North, the electoral dynamics would be shaken. His influence in Kano, which remains the most populous state in Nigeria with over 5.9 million registered voters in 2023, is still potent.

In the last presidential poll, Kwankwaso not only won the state but also proved that he could sway elections far beyond the NNPP’s limited national reach. That sort of electoral heft will be sought after by anyone challenging Tinubu in 2027, including Atiku Abubakar if he chooses to run again, or a new northern consensus candidate.

Meanwhile, Tinubu may be facing a slow erosion of political goodwill in the North. Already accused of leaning heavily toward the South-West in key appointments, his strained relationship with influential northern figures like Kwankwaso could jeopardise his northern base, which was critical to his 2023 victory.

But sources believed that Tinubu is also exploring other options in the North to solidify his chances.

One of them said: “The truth is that Kwankwaso wants the alliance to be done on his own terms which is not possible.

“For instance, ahead of the appointment of ministers, he was asked to nominate his preferred candidate but he looked the other way.

“This may appear to be a different narrative from what is out there, that he will be made a minister. What of if the president only wants him to remain as a kingmaker?

“Also, against all entreaties that Kwankwaso and the Kano State governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf should allow the status quo remains at the Kano Emirate, they turned the other way. Now, look at the stalemate in the state. These are some of the issues,” he said.