NIGERIAN AND THE FADING LIGHTS OF JUSTICE BY CHIDI ANSELEM ODINKALU

NIGERIA AND THE FADING LIGHTS OF JUSTICE, BY CHIDI ANSELEM ODINKALU

As he settled in to deliver the judgment of the Edo State Governorship Election Petition Tribunal on 2 April 2025, presiding judge, Wilfred Kpochi, felt obliged to get one ritual out of the way. Glancing left and right, he asked each of his two colleagues on the three-person tribunal to confirm that the judgment he was about to deliver was unanimous. Justice Kpochi only proceeded after each, one to his left and the other to his right, nodded their affirmation.

The judge had good reason for this preliminary ritual. Some 48 hours before it was due, a leaked document purporting to be the judgment of the tribunal went into circulation. Ahead of judgment day, both leading parties in the electoral contest which had inexorably mutated into a judicial one – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) – felt compelled to issue duelling statements denouncing the leak and blaming the other for it. The APC claimed that “the PDP leaked a fake judgment, knowing they would lose”, while the PDP “accused the APC of using the leaked fake document to gauge public reaction.”

   The leaked document suggested that the tribunal would deliver a split verdict, with one of the three judges dissenting from the majority of two who were supposed to decide against the petition of the PDP and its candidate, Asue Ighodalo. When, therefore, the presiding judge asked his colleagues to affirm that the judgment was unanimous, he sought to telegraph that tales of the leak of their judgment were unfounded or, in any case, had mis-described the decision of the tribunal. Instead of a split decision suggested by the leak, this was a unanimous court.

   This was far from the first time that the decision of an election petition tribunal in Nigeria would be foreshadowed by suggestions or allegations of a leak ahead of its delivery.

At the onset of presidentialism in Nigeria in 1979, the contest between Shehu Shagari of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) and Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) ended up before the presidential election tribunal. On 20 August 1979, Obafemi Awolowo filed his petition against the declaration of Shehu Shagari as the winner of the election. The following day, military ruler, General Olusegun Obasanjo, invited Atanda Fatayi Williams to the Dodan Barracks (as the seat of government then in Lagos was called) and offered him the office of the Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN).

Fatayi Williams’ first task was to adjudicate Chief Awolowo’s petition. The military had committed to handing over power on 1 October, a mere 40 days later. General Obasanjo, who was overseeing arrangements for a high profile handover to an elected successor, was anxious to know that the Supreme Court would not torpedo his plans. It was credibly suspected that he received the necessary assurances from his hand-picked CJN well ahead of the judgment.

   In March 2008, Action Congress (AC), the party then led by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, vigorously alleged that the outcome of the presidential election petition challenging the announcement of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of the PDP as the winner of the 2007 presidential election, had leaked. Lai Mohammed, the spokesperson of the party at the time, denounced the leak, proclaiming that the judgment would “not stand the test of time.”

Some 15 years later, as the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal issued a 48-hour notice of the delivery of its judgment on 4 September 2023, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the candidate of the APC, whose announcement on 1 March as the winner of the presidential election was under challenge, departed for New Delhi, India, to attend the G-20 Summit. He arrived India on 5 September, the day before the judgment, guaranteeing that he was going to be outside the country when the tribunal delivered its judgment. Many people believed that Tinubu traveled to India with the confidence of a man who had been assured ahead of schedule of the outcome that the tribunal would announce the day after he landed in India.

   Whether these allegations were true in any specific case is a subject for another day. Far from diminishing over the years, however, credible suspicions of breach of the deliberative confidentiality of judicial decision-making in election disputes and political cases in Nigeria have grown. They enjoy high credulity with the public, an indication of a deep-seated deficit of credibility that now clearly afflicts the business of what judges do in political and electoral disputes in Nigeria.

At the valedictory session of the 9th Senate in June 2023, Adamu Bulkachuwa, the senator for Bauchi North, confirmed suspicions of unconscionably intimate dalliances between judges and politicians when he appreciated his colleagues “whom (sic) have come to me and sought for my help when my wife was the President of the Court of Appeal.” Senator Bulkachuwa did not forget to thank his wife “whose freedom and independence I encroached upon while she was in office…. She has been very tolerant and accepted my encroachment and extended her help to my colleagues.” His wife, Zainab, was President of the Court of Appeal from 2014 to 2020.

   For insisting on calling attention to this kind of criminal acccessorisation of judges, Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory who is also a member of Nigeria’s Body of Benchers (BoB), invited the grandees of the BoB who visited him in his office at the end of last month to dispense with basic niceties of process and “punish” me. His 36 minute-long harangue to the old men and women of the BoB who were his guests, was occasionally punctuated with enthusiastic applause belying the average age of the group as well as the kind of undisguised ridicule which they had to endure for both themselves and the institutions of the judicial process in Nigeria. Such cravenness from the leadership of the self-described “body of practitioners of the highest distinction in the legal profession in Nigeria”, bodes ill for judicial credibility and independence.

WHY TIT FOR TAT TARIFF WAR MUST BE AVOIDED, BY OKONJO-IWEALA

Director-General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, at the weekend cautioned against the rising tension in global trade tariff. She warned that the escalating tariff could have devastating consequences for the world economy.

Last week, the United States’ decision to introduce new trade restrictions on countries prompted fears of retaliation from key global players which is feared may snowball into a full-blown trade war.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva also called on the United States Government and its trading partners to work together at resolving issues around the import tariffs announced by President, Donald Trump administration.

A 10 per cent “baseline” tariff on most imports to the US took effect on Saturday – with several countries facing more higher taxes from April 9. Africa has 14 per cent import tariff tag, which means Nigeria falls within the bracket.

Okonjo-Iweala expressed deep concern over the unfolding situation, stating: “The WTO Secretariat is closely monitoring and analysing the measures announced by the United States on April 2, 2025. Many members have reached out to us and we are actively engaging with them in response to their questions about the potential impact on their economies and the global trading system.”

She noted that the new measures, when combined with those introduced since the start of the year, could lead to a sharp downturn in global trade flows.

She said: “The recent announcements will have substantial implications for global trade and economic growth prospects.

“While the situation is rapidly evolving, our initial estimates suggest that these measures, coupled with those introduced since the beginning of the year, could lead to an overall contraction of around 1 per cent in global merchandise trade volumes this year, representing a downward revision of nearly four percentage points from previous projections.”

Okonjo-Iweala, is was also Nigeria’s former finance minister, warned that the potential for a tit-for-tat tariff spiral was real and dangerous.

“I’m deeply concerned about this decline and the potential for escalation into a tariff war with a cycle of retaliatory measures that lead to further declines in trade,” she said.

She emphasised that despite the new restrictions, most global trade still benefits from WTO protections under the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) system.

“It is important to remember that, despite these new measures, the vast majority of global trade still flows under the WTO’s Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) terms. Our estimates now indicate that this share currently stands at 74 per cent, down from around 80 per cent at the beginning of the year. WTO members must stand together to safeguard these gains,” she stressed.

Taking to her official X handle, the WTO chief summed up her position with a warning: “We need to avoid a tit for tat tariff war. This will be destructive for the global economy.”

Her latest warning echoes remarks she expressed earlier in the year at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where she urged calm amid growing tariff threats, especially from the United States.

In a panel discussion on tariff, in a week that saw US President Donald Trump threatening tariffs against China, the European Union, Mexico and Canada, Okonjo-Iweala cautioned against overreaction, stating: “Please let’s not hyperventilate. I know we are here to discuss tariffs. I’ve been saying to everybody: could we chill, also. I just sense a lot of hyperventilation.”

She evoked the historical lesson of the 1930s Great Depression, where the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act triggered a wave of retaliatory duties that deepened the global economic downturn.

She said: “We are very much saying to our members at the WTO: you have other avenues. Even if a tariff is levied, please keep calm, don’t wake up and without the necessary groundwork levy your own.

“If we have tit-for-tat retaliation, whether it’s 25 percent tariffs, 60 percent, and we go to where we were in the 1930s, we are going to see double-digit global GDP losses, double-digit. That’s catastrophic,” she added.

In a statement, IMF said the Fund was still assessing the macroeconomic implications of the tariffs, and will provide full review in during the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings later this month in US.

Georgieva said: “We are still assessing the macroeconomic implications of the announced tariff measures, but they clearly represent a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth. It is important to avoid steps that could further harm the world economy. We appeal to the United States and its trading partners to work constructively to resolve trade tensions and reduce uncertainty.”

“We will share the results of our assessment in the World Economic Outlook, which will be published at the time of the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings later this month”.

Meanwhile, and economist and CEO Economic Associates, Ayo Teriba, speaking on the impact on local banks, said drop in equities prices can lead to major losses for Nigerians with investment in global companies, and as more people sell off their stock, that could lead to global recession.

Teriba, said foreign investors with portfolio investment in Nigeria may pull out their funds, to cover losses at home.

He said some Nigeria banks with investment in US stocks, will also record huge losses as global equities prices nosedive.

He also warned that capital flight out of the country, will adversely impact on the forex market, leading to decline in exchange rate.

Teriba said with crisis around oil prices, and equities in turmoil, investors can push more funds to gold, to safeguard the value of their investments.

He also called for dialogue in resolving the tariffs challenge.

Likewise, Indonesian government says it won’t retaliate against Donald Trump’s tariffs, after the US president announced an additional 32 per cent levy on its exports on Wednesday.

In a statement, chief economic minister Airlangga Hartarto says Jakarta will pursue negotiations to find a solution.

It comes after some countries, including the UK, chose not to announce reciprocal tariffs on the US.

Others, like China – one of the countries hit hardest by Trump’s tariffs – have announced counter-measures.